000 AGXX40 KNHC 252323 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010 UPDATED GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... UPDATED...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WITH MAX WINDS OF 30 KT HAS FORMED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N83.5W 1004 MB MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 18.5N86.5W SAT EVENING...THEN WILL MOVE INLAND SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AND WILL WEAKEN BACK TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS THEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 24N92.5W TUE EVENING...THEN TO 25N93.5W WED EVENING. -LEWITSKY WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC W INTO FAR NRN GULF AND DRAPES OVER DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER W CARIBBEAN....ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE. SECOND LLVL WIND SURGE IN PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE STRAITS AND INTO S CENTRAL CARIB RAISING SEAS IN THE STRAITS TO AROUND 8 FT...ESPECIALLY WHERE FLOW IS AGAINST FLORIDA CURRENT. RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED E-NE WINDS NEAR 20 KT WITH SOME 20-25 KT VECTORS BETWEEN 80W AND 86W S OF 24N. OTHERWISE...MILD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS. TROPICAL WAVE AND DEVELOPING LOW FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW AND INTO THE YUCATAN SAT EVENING...MAINTAINING TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE N AND NE OF WAVE AND ACROSS THE SE GULF TO THE YUCATAN. THIS W CARIB LOW CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT BETTER REPRESENTATION IN STLT IMAGERY AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NEXT 24 HOURS...OR LESS. THIS COULD FURTHER INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO MOVE W-NW TO NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND EMERGE OVER SW GULF BY 72 HOURS AND CONTINUE A NW MOTION...TOWARD THE UPPER MEXICO/S TEXAS COASTAL ZONES. ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. -STRIPLING CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... UPDATED...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WITH MAX WINDS OF 30 KT HAS FORMED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N83.5W 1004 MB MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 18.5N86.5W SAT EVENING...THEN WILL MOVE INLAND SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AND WILL WEAKEN BACK TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. -LEWITSKY TROPICAL WAVE OVER W CARIBBEAN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SLOWLY IMPROVING ORGANIZATION AND CNVTN THIS AFTERNOON. A 1502 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED A SURFACE LOW NEAR 16.3N83W WITH E TO SE FLOW 20-25 KT EXTENDING FROM NE SEMICIRCLE OUT TO SW HAITI...AND STRONG GRADIENT FLOW FURTHER E TO 72W S OF BARAHONA DOM REP. TROPICAL WAVE TRAILING THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM HAS MOVED NW ACROSS JAMAICA AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER THE TOP OF THE DEVELOPING LOW AND BECOME SOMEWHAT ABSORBED INTO THE WRN MOST WAVE. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN FRESH FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIB AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SELY FLOW OF 20 KT EXTENDS FROM SW HAITI...SE TO OFFSHORE OF VENEZUELA WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 6-7 FT. THE NEXT TRAILING TROPICAL WAVE HAS FRACTURED...WITH SRN PORTION MOVING ACROSS SE CARIB ATTM AND N PORTION BEING DRAWN NW BY SELY FLOW INDUCED BY TUTT LOW TO N OF PUERTO RICO. MODEST E TO SE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE E CARIB AND W CARIB WAVE AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVE W-NW NEAR 10 KT AND INTO THE YUCATAN SAT EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS COULD REACH 30 KT AND 9 FT SAT...AND HIGHER IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE SCENARIO. -STRIPLING SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ALONG 30N/31N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH THE BASIN N OF 25N. S OF 25N FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH W CARIB TOPICAL WAVE WILL THROUGH SAT BEFORE MODERATING AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO NEAR 23N65W IS THE REMNANT OF A VERY LARGE AND WELL DEFINED NORTHERN VORT OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE ATLC PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AMPLE CNVTN IS CURRENTLY FLARING UNDERNEATH ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ALOFT...AND MODELS SUGGEST CHANCE FOR A LLVL LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NW NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS COULD PRODUCE 25 KT WINDS OR HIGHER ON ERN SEMICIRCLE OF ANY LOW...AND ON E SIDE OF TROUGH...WITH SEAS 8-9 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING W OF 85W THROUGH SAT NIGHT. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W TUE AND WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING/LEWITSKY