000 AGXX40 KNHC 221825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER GULF STATES MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE BREEZE THROUGH WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL WAVE...NOW ALONG 86W INCREASED WIND AND SEAS OVER STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SPREAD W OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF...WEAKENING TONIGHT. EXTREME SE PART OF BASIN MAY BE AFFECTED BY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN APPROACHING NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA IS MAIN FEATURE IN TODAY FORECAST. FIRST BECAUSE IT HAS HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SECOND...BECAUSE IT IS LIKELY TO IMPACT OTHER ZONES IN ITS TRACK...AND THIRD BECAUSE OF WIDE ARRAY OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE COMING IN TUNE WITH EARLIER STATISTICAL MODELS AND SPINNING CIRCULATION ALONG 73W-75W BUT STILL HAVE LARGE VARIANCE IN LOCATION...TIMING AND INTENSITY. CANADIAN AND BAM FAMILY SEEM OK ON TIME AND TRACK BUT TOO AGGRESSIVE WHILE NAM APPEARS GOOD ON TIME AND INTENSITY BUT POSITION SEEMS TOO FAR W. GFS SHOWS UNCHARACTERISTICALLY TAME IN INTENSITY ALONG WITH WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS. ALL IN ALL...FORECAST STILL LEANS TOWARD CAUTIOUS BAM FAMILY BUT WITH MUCH TEMPERED INTENSITY...TILL WE SEE A MORE TROPICAL ORGANIZATION. WAVE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SW N ATLC AND BAHAMAS S OF 25N AND NE WIND SURGE ENTER GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WED AND THU. EVEN IF IT DOES NOT REACH TROPICAL STATUS...WAVE PACKS ENOUGH HIGH WIND AND SEAS ALONG ITS PATH TO WARRANT CONCERN OR AVOIDANCE. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERS EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 60W... FAVORED IN SEVERAL SOLUTIONS TO INTENSIFY...FOLLOW OUR MAIN FEATURED WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. MOST MODELS SHIFT WAVE NW ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES REACHING WESTERN BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ALONG 30/31N THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD KEEPING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW THROUGH BASIN N OF 25N. S OF 25N FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLIES EXPECTED AS TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVE W OVER GREATER ANTILLES. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES SE PART OF BASIN WITH INCREASE IN WIND AND SEAS LATE FRI OR SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES