000 AGXX40 KNHC 211807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 29N PREVAILS ACROSS WESTERN GULF THROUGH FRI WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE. TROPICAL WAVE...NOW OVER CENTRAL INCREASING WIND AND SEAS IN STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING W OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF...WEAKENING WED. RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN GULF THU AND FRI WHILE EXTREME SE PART MAY BE AFFECTED BY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL WAVE OVER NW CARIBBEAN NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA MAINTAIN STEADY FRESH E BREEZE THROUGH BASINS. TROPICAL WAVE OVER E CUBA MOVE W THROUGH NORTHERN PART OF CARIBBEAN WITH INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ALONG ITS AXIS AS IT EXITS BASIN TUE. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 67W S OF PUERTO RICO STRENGTHENS TRADES AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TUE. THIRD WAVE ENTERS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS MAINLY S OF 18N. MODEL GUIDANCE VARY GREATLY IN DEVELOPMENT OF THESE LAST TWO WAVES. NOT ONLY THEY DIFFER ON WHICH WAVE SPINS UP...BUT ALSO HOW STRONG...TIMING AND TRACK THEREAFTER. FORECAST TAKES CAUTIONARY MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND FOLLOW EARLY STATISTICAL MODELS DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG 67W AND TRACKING IT W-NW TO YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE ALONG 30N TEMPORARILY FORCED N BY TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING S PART OF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE MOVE W INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS S BACK TO ALONG 29N/30N WED THROUGH SAT KEEPING MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW THROUGH ENTIRE BASIN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES