000 AGXX40 KNHC 141800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... 1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N88W IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH THE PERIOD OCCASIONALLY DISAPPEARING AS AN ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS FL TO THE N CENTRAL GULF. A WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN GA WILL DIP A LITTLE FURTHER S OVER THE NE WATERS RESULTING IN THE WEAK HIGH CENTER RE-DEVELOPING OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS THU AND FRI AND RIDGING SE TO FL STRAITS. SEEMS AS IF THE PAST TWO TROPICAL WAVES HAVE AMPLIFIED N AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE PAC ALONG 95W IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT THE UPPER LOW AND WAVE...AND THIS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...TO ALL SHIFT W OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MOVE W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THU...THUS ADJUSTED FORECASTS TO SHOW INCREASE IN WINDS AND CONVECTION IN THE SW GULF ZONE MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BUOY 42057W INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W EXTENDS N TO ABOUT 17N. A PREVIOUS WAVE...NOW OVER PAC ALONG 95W...BECAME CONVECTIVE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS IT PASSED TO THE W. THUS ADJUSTED THIS MORNINGS SURFACE ANALYSIS TO SHOW LARGER AMPLITUDE OF WAVE TO ABOUT 17N. EXPECT ALL ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS TO MOVE W OF GULF OF HONDURAS MIDDAY TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W ALSO HAS CYCLONIC SIGNATURE TO AT LEAST 17N...AND PERHAPS EVEN 21N...THIS MORNING. WILL MOVE THIS WAVE W AT 15 KT TO ALONG 55W TUE...61W WED...67W THU...74W FRI AND NEAR 80W SAT. LOW PRES NEAR 10N40W HAS A LIMITED WINDOW FOR CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECT ITS REMNANT TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL ZONE THU THROUGH SAT INCREASING ELY TRADES TO 15-20 KT. SW N ATLC... REMNANTS OF FRONTAL TROUGH WIGGLE ALONG 28N55W TO 25N65W TO 29N72W WITH RIDGE ALONG 31N62W TO 26N80W BRIDGING THROUGH THE THIS TROUGH. EXPECT RIDGE TO ORIENTATE ITSELF E-W ALONG 25N ON TUE...MEANDER ON WED...THEN SHIFT N TO ALONG 26N-27N THU-FRI... AND ALONG 28N SAT. GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS OR TROUGHS WILL PASS FROM W TO E OVER WATERS N OF 30N RESULTING IN ABOUT 30 DEG S-SW WIND SHIFT AT 15 KT MAX. LOOKS LIKE REMNANT TROUGH OF THIS MORNINGS TROPICAL LOW WILL MOVE NW INTO WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO FRI INTO SAT ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASE IN ELY WINDS TO 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON