000 AGXX40 KNHC 111716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 EDT FRI JUN 11 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER SW GA HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 30-31N. SE RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT CONTINUES ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY OF RIDGE IN THE SW AND NW GULF ZONES. THE HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TONIGHT THEN SHIFT SLOWLY W REACHING A POSITION OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SUN NIGHT-MON. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NE GULF WATERS SUN AND SUN NIGHT THEN MOVE E OF FLORIDA BY LATE MON NIGHT. AN ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 29-30N TUE INTO WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT OVER THE W GULF...AND GENERALLY VARIABLE 5-10 KT OVER THE N CENTRAL AND E WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 16N ALONG ROUGHLY 71W SEEMS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAT PREVIOUSLY TRACKED...AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 76W SAT...78W SUN...81W MON THEN MOVE W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT. SEEMS AS IF AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER E CUBA IS NOW MOVING W ALMOST IN PHASE WITH THE LOW LEVEL WAVE...AND THUS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. EXPECT THE ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES TO SHIFT W WITH THE WAVE BUT CONTINUE WELL AFTER THE WAVE PASSES AS THE ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHIFTS S AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS. A SECOND WAVE...OR TROUGH...IS S OF 10N ALONG 53W THIS AFTERNOON MOVING W AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER S AMERICA SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. A THIRD WAVE IS S OF 13N ALONG 35W...AND SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W SUNRISE WED. SW N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 29N70W TO 25N77W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS A RIDGE ALONG 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS BUILDS FURTHER W. S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST MON NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OF 30N WITH WEAK REMNANTS PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING...NOTE THIS IS A CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON