000 AGXX40 KNHC 090818 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 415 AM EDT WED JUN 09 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT PAST 6 HRS ACROSS THE NE GULF TO SRN FLORIDA AS FORECAST...LEAVING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. 0258 UTC ASCAT PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BASIN SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OFF THE YUCATAN AND S-SE FLOW 15-20 KT BLOWING INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SAL STILL LINGERING ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NE AND NW GULF...WITH INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE HAVING RECENTLY MOVING INTO THE SE GULF AND PUSHED W OF THE YUCATAN THIS EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UNTIL A NARROW RIDGE BUILDS W FROM THE ATLC ACROSS SRN FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE GULF...ESTABLISHING A MORE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 4-5 FT SEAS WITH SMALL ISOLATED AREAS TO 6 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS W HALF OF THE BASIN BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STEERING FLOW THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS GUIDED THE LAST 3 TROPICAL WAVES W-NW OFF OF S AMERICA AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT EPAC...AND LIFTED THE ITCZ BACK INTO THE EXTREME SW CARIB. THIS HAS SHIFTED THE LLVL JET A BIT N OF THE COLOMBIAN COASTLINE AND MORE OFF OF VENEZUELA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. 20 KT TRADES ARE THUS NOW N OF 12N AND E OF 75W. I THINK WE LOST A TROPICAL WAVE...NOW NEAR 74W...THAT MODELS DEPICT MOVING INTO HONDURAS THIS EVENING AND WILL ACT TO EXPAND THE FRESH TRADES W ACROSS THE SW CARIB TONIGHT AND TO NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS LATE THU. THE NEXT ENERGETIC TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 60W ATTM WILL BRING A 20-25 KT WIND SURGE WITH TSTMS AND SQUALLS AS THE ACCOMPANYING LLVL JET INTERACTS WITH SAL JUST AHEAD OF IT. A 0114 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED 25 KT WINDS EXTENDING N TO 15W AND BEYOND 48W BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS...WHILE AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AT 2120 UTC SHOWED THE SAME. BUOYS 41101 AND 41040 JUST TO THE N OF THIS AREA REPORTING E-NE WINDS 20 KT AND SEAS 8 FT AT NEAR 8 SECONDS...AND WWIII FORECAST OF SEAS TO 9 FT SEEM PROBABLE NE THROUGH N OF BARBADOS NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND AND WAVE FIELD...AND SQUALLY WEATHER WILL SHIFT W-NW ACROSS THE ERN CARIB S OF 16N THROUGH THU MORNING AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB THU AND THU NIGHT. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE H7 JET AND SAL WILL HELP TO INDUCE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WATERS OF THE NE CARIB TODAY THROUGH FRI. SW N ATLC... FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND REACHED THE FAR NW BAHAMAS TO PALM BEACH AREA...WITH A LLVL TROUGH TO THE SE OF IT INDUCING SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME SRN FLORIDA...THE STRAITS...AND NE ACROSS THE NE BAHAMAS. AS THIS BOUNDARY BECOME STRUNG OUT E-NE ACROSS NE PORTIONS THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THIS LLVL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OFF THE FAR S TIP OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO BE THE FOCUS ON CONTINUED PULSES OF TSTMS. N OF THE FRONT...RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF 15-20 KT NE TO E WINDS FROM 68W TO THE FLORIDA E COAST...BUILDING SEAS TO 4-5 FT. THE PERSISTENT LLVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER FROM N OF HISPANIOLA NE TO NEAR 25N65W...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ABOVE IT CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED CNVTN TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. AS UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SW AND W UNDERNEATH THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE BAHAMAS LATE THU AND FRI. MOISTURE AND THE REMNANTS OF THE LINGERING LLVL TROUGH...AND THE TROUGH OFF OF S FLORIDA WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN ACTIVE CNVTN ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS TO THE E AND NE. MODERATE E TO SE TRADES WILL BUILD INTO THE SE BAHAMAS...REACHING 20 KT N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THU NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING THERE TO 6 FT. OTHERWISE MODEST WINDS AND SEAS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK S INTO NE WATERS LATE FRI INTO SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING