000 AGXX40 KNHC 080817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 415 AM EDT TUE JUN 08 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... VERY WEAK HIGH HAS SHIFTED TO JUST S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SUNK S INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS. DRY STABLE SAL STILL DOMINATING MOST OF THE REST OF GULF S OF 25N AND E OF 95W YIELDING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE W HALF. FRONT TO MAKE VERY LITTLE MORE PROGRESS ACROSS THE NE GULF...SINKING A BIT FARTHER S ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA...AS UPPER SUPPORT HAS SHIFTED SE INTO THE W ATLC AND UPPER RIDGING PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE ERN GULF TONIGHT AND ALLOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH INCREASING SE TO S FLOW TO NEAR 20 KT N OF 25N W OF 95W THU AND THEN EXPANDING A BIT FRI AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NE TO E WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS BRIEFLY 4-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE N AND NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN EACH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... PERSISTENT LLVL TROUGHING N OF THE NE CARIB CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE ATLC HIGH FROM BUILDING INTO THE BASIN...BUT SUFFICIENT GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRES AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS S AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS PER RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THE FLOW HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE W CARIB DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. HOWEVER FRESH FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HAVING SHIFTED EWD OF 75W...AND WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND GRADUALLY N AND NW NEXT 48 HOURS AS TWO TROPICAL WAVES CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS S AMERICA...AND THEIR ASSOCIATED LLVL WIND SURGES MOVE WNW ACROSS ALL BUT NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THESE WAVES CAN BE SEEN IN TPW IMAGERY ADVECTING NW INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIB...BUT IS GENERALLY ENTERING A REGION OF BROAD UPPER CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE. SEAS ACROSS THE N HALF OT HE BASIN CURRENTLY ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT AND INCREASING S OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WHILE 6-8 FT SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB AND OFF COLOMBIA. AN ENERGETIC TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 50W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AND THEN ENTER THE CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH THIS WAVE LIKELY LEADS THE WAVE AXIS BY A FE DEGREES...AND THIS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LLVL WIND SURGE...WITH SAL N AND NW OF THIS FEATURE. SAL WILL REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOLLOWING BY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER. A 20-25 KT WIND SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH BUILDING SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT BEHIND THE WAVE WED THROUGH THU E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SW N ATLC... A PERSISTENT LLVL THROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 28N63W...WITH SELY FLOW CONVERGING ALONG THE E SIDE YIELDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE SE COAST AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A 0136 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD ZONE OF 20 KT NELY WINDS N OF THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW WATERS...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THIS FRONT WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILED....WITH THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK AND LINGERING LLVL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS EXTENDING N. THIS FEATURE WAS UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER LOW WHICH WAS ACTING TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING FROM NEAR 30N64W TO S CENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN LIFT N AND DISSIPATE BY THU. SW WINDS TO 20 KT MAY BE BRIEFLY SEEN SE OF THE FRONT N OF 29-30N TODAY...WHILE NE WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 30N. A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD W ALONG 27-28N THU AND HELP TO PUSH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS N. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SINK S INTO THE NE WATERS LATE FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING