000 AGXX40 KNHC 071837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT MON JUN 07 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB SFC HIGH OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA WITH RIDGING NW TO THE LOUISIANA COAST IS PRODUCING A WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NW AND COLLAPSE THROUGH TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE NE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI ON TUE...BECOME STATIONARY...THEN LIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS THE NE WATERS WED AND DISSIPATE EARLY THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 24N AND W OF 94W BY WED. NE TO E WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS BRIEFLY 4-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE N AND NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN EACH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... PERSISTENT LLVL TROUGHING NE OF THE NE CARIB CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE ATLC HIGH FROM BUILDING INTO THE BASIN...BUT SUFFICIENT GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRES AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS S AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL WIND BARBS OF 20 TO 25 KT JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS TO 15N. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NW CARIB DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT FRESH FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN....SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EWD AND THEN EXPANDING W-NW TO S OF JAMAICA TUE-WED AND THEN INTO FAR W CARIB THU. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERING THE FAR S PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N AS IT MOVES GENERALLY W DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 42W ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE WEATHER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU MORNING...REACHING 68W FRI. A WIND SURGE AND BUILDING SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SW N ATLC... A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS WITH AXIS ALONG 72W S OF 28N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO NEAR 68W. A SECOND AND BETTER DEFINED THROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N59W TO JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATED VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN STALL TUE NIGHT FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN LIFT N AND DISSIPATING BY THU. SW WINDS TO 20 KT MAY BE BRIEFLY SEEN SE OF THE FRONT N OF 29-30N...AND ALSO N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 30N. A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD W ALONG 27-28N THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SINK S INTO THE NE WATERS LATE FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/SS