000 AGXX40 KNHC 070814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 314 PM EDT MON JUN 07 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... ACTIVE CNVTN ACROSS THE NRN GULF THIS PAST EVENING HAS SINCE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS LLVL FORCING HAS ENDED. 1016 MB SFC HIGH OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA WITH RIDGING NW TO THE LOUISIANA COAST INDUCING WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS AND NOW LLVL CONVERGENCE. A LARGE AREA OF SAL HAS MOVED N-NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF AND HELPED TO INHIBIT CNVTN THERE THIS PAST AFTERNOON. LLVL MOISTURE NOW CONVERGING ACROSS THE NW GULF...WHILE SOME CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SELY FLOW NEAR 15 KT ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE GULF THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE ELY TODAY THEN REVERT TO SE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUE AS FRONT DROPS INTO NE PORTION OF THE BASIN...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING S-SE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS THEN EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS...15-20 KT AND 4-5 FT...OCCASIONALLY TO 6 FT WILL PERSIST ACROSS W PORTIONS...WHILE E TO NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS BRIEFLY 4-5 FT CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE N AND NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN EACH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SAL DOMINATING THE BASIN PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED NW AND NOW ONLY ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIB...WITH MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY TO TWO MOST RECENT WAVES NOW SHIFTING NW ACROSS THE SRN CARIB AND REACHING TO 15N FROM 64W TO 83W ATTM. PERSISTENT LLVL TROUGHING NE OF THE NE CARIB CONTINUES TO BLOCK THE ATLC HIGH FROM BUILDING INTO THE BASIN...BUT SUFFICIENT GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRES AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS S AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO MAINTAIN FRESH FLOW IN PREFERRED ZONES. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED 25 KT S OF 13.5N OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND ALSO BLOWING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WHERE A FEW 25-30 KT VECTORS WERE SEEN ALONG THE HONDURAN COAST. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NW CARIB NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE NE GULF...BUT FRESH FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB....SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EWD AND THEN EXPANDING W-NW TO S OF JAMAICA TUE-WED AND THEN INTO FAR W CARIB THU. TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERING FAR S PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 11N AS IT MOVES GENERALLY W NEXT 36 HOURS. MODERATE ELY TRADES WILL PREVAIL S OF 15N THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A LLVL WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE EVENING AND FRESHEN THE FLOW...WITH BUILDING SEAS 7 TO 8 FT TUE NIGHT AND WED. MODERATE SELY FLOW N OF 15N ATTM INDUCED BY LLVL TROUGH N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO ELY BY TUE EVENING AS TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. ELY TRADE WIND SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT BY TUE EVENING. THIS NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE PRECEDED BY A LLVL WIND SURGE. THIS WAVE WILL AMPLIFY TO 15-16N AS IT APPROACHES THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. THE INTERACTION OF SAL AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...THE LLVL WIND SURGE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE WILL LEAD TO ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER. SW N ATLC... A VERY WEAK LLVL INVERTED TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS ALONG ABOUT 73.5W THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TSTMS ON EITHER SIDE FOR A FEW DEGREES. MEANWHILE A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND SOMEWHAT COMPLEX LLVL TROUGH MEANDERS FROM NEAR 20N N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NEAR 26N62W...WHERE THE GFS HAS INSISTED ON DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW (THAT HAS YET TO PAN OUT) ...THEN CONTINUES N-NE TO NEAR 30N58W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND REACHES NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER IS TO BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SE OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS. SW WINDS TO 20 KT MAY BE BRIEFLY BE SEEN SE OF THE FRONT N OF 29-30N...AND ALSO N TO NE WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 30N. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MILD SEAS TO PREVAIL. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STRUNG OUT AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NE WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A WEAK AND NARROW RIDGE BUILDING W ALONG 27-28N THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING