000 AGXX40 KNHC 060749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 349 AM EDT SUN JUN 05 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... SHARP AND ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CONVERGING E OF 94W...RELATED TO TWO RECENT TROPICAL WAVES...TO PRODUCE ACTIVE CNVTN. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT NW. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE GULF WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT AND LESS...STRONGEST ACROSS THE SW AND OFF YUCATAN COAST. SEAS 3-5 FT EXCEPT LESS THAN 3 FT FAR E WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE NE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN MON AND THEN STALLS ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE...WITH VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE GULF AND SE TO S WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS W PORTIONS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... RECENT ASCAT PASSES INDICATE WINDS HAVE ABATED ACROSS THE SRN CARIB FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH LIMITED ASCAT COVERAGE SUGGESTING WINDS NO HIGHER THAN LOWER 20S OFF COLOMBIA AND 15-20 OFF VENEZUELA. TWO LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE ATLC CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE ATLC RIDGE FROM BUILDING ACROSS THE BASIN. SAL ASSOCIATED WITH A RECENT TROPICAL WAVE HAS MADE IT INTO THE NW CARIB AND IS MOVING N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF ATTM. MODERATE ELY TRADES PREVAIL E OF 83W AND THEN TURN SE ACROSS THE NW CARIB...WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 9 FT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE ELY ACROSS THE NW CARIB IN RESPONSE TO COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NE GULF AND E TO W RIDGING ACROSS THE SE GULF. MODERATE TRADES TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH BRIEF PULSING TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SRN CARIB. OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OFF E COAST OF U.S. AND SERIES OF FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ATLC HIGH EWD AND KEEP RIDGING INTO THE THE CARIB AND SW N ATLC FROM OCCURRING. TROPICAL WAVES WILL KEEP WEATHER GENERALLY BELOW 12-13N UNTIL WED WHEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE MOVES NW AND SPREAD WEATHER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS S OF 18N. SW N ATLC... A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW-MI LEVEL TROUGHS PERSIST OVER THE ATLC W OF 50W...BOTH INDUCED BY MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS. THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NE ALONG 70W...WHILE THE SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT EXTENDS FROM ALONG 21N N OF THE LEEWARDS THEN SNAKES NE TO A WEAK LOW NEAR 31N54W. WEAK LOWS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH...BUT NOT AS RECENTLY DEPICTED BY GFS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPING ALONG SRN END AND MOVING N. HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND JUST MOVE THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY NW AND THEN THEN N OUT OF THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF ATLC FRONT ON TUE. THIS TO MAINTAIN MILD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...EXCEPT NEAR 20 KT N OF 28-29N IN S TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT MON AND TUE. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLC AND 1 TO 3...AND LESS W OF BAHAMAS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. LOOK FOR ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SQUALLS AND STRONG TSTMS ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NW WATERS MON THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING