000 AGXX40 KNHC 050757 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT SAT JUN 05 2010 AMENDED GULF SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED LOW ACROSS E TEXAS/W LOUISIANA HAS BECOME AN ELONGATED SHEAR ZONE WITH WEAK SFC LOW. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH IS ILL DEFINED ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE GULF REGION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ATTM. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED MODERATE S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE N GULF AND SE TO E FLOW ACROSS THE S HALF. MEANWHILE...A LARGE CLUSTER OF EXPLOSIVE CNVTN ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN HAS SHIFTED W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SRN MEXICO. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH N PORTIONS OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE DROPPED FROM THE MAP YESTERDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY INTO THE FAR WRN GULF. LOOK FOR THESE TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT W AND NW THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING TO FALL APART LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL FLOW BECOME DIFFLUENT. REMNANTS OF THE TEXAS ARE LOW FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY N TODAY AND ALLOW STRAIGHT SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH SUN MORNING. AN E TO W RIDGE ALONG 25N WILL BUILD W TO 90W ACROSS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE NE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN MON AND TUE. FRONT TO STALL ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA MON NIGHT WITH WEAK 1016 MB HIGH THEN CENTERED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF...AND SE TO S WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS W PORTIONS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL EPAC HAS SHIFTED W TO 95W AND ALLOWED ELY TRADES AND ACCOMPANYING SAL TO SPREAD W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB TO 80W...WHERE WINDS THEN BECOME SELY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWERS FRESHENED FLOW ACROSS THE SRN CARIB...WITH 25-30 KT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND ZONE OF 25 KT SE FLOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE ELY ACROSS THE NW CARIB BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS USUAL...NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 57W S OF 12N WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY. SW N ATLC... A TRIO OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA...ALL INDUCED BY MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE ATLC. THE WESTERNMOST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSED SOUTH FLORIDA YESTERDAY TRIGGERING STRONG TSTMS...AND WAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. CURRENTLY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...THERE IS ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 65W S OF 28N...WITH ASSOCIATED WEATHER CONTINUING TO BE TRIGGERED JUST E OF THE AREA BY A SHORT WAVE MOVING E-SE ALONG 63W. THE THIRD TROUGH IS FARTHER E AND OUT OF THE AREA. THESE TROUGHS WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF REGION LATE SUN INTO MON WITH SW WINDS OF 20 KT EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS LATE TUE. OTHERWISE THE ATLC RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 34N AND RIDGE WEAKLY W...BEING BLOCKED FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA BY THESE TWO LOW LEVEL TROUGHS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING