000 AGXX40 KNHC 040757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 355 AM EDT FRI JUN 04 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED LOW ALONG THE SE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS WITH CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY/FRONTAL TROUGH SPIRALING OUT OF IT ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR MODERATE TO STRONG CNVTN ACROSS S TEXAS/N MEXICO COASTAL ZONES AND ALSO ALONG THE S LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR SQUALLS AND TSTMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 0300 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED SW TO S WINDS AROUND 15 KT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND E TO NE 15-20 KT OFF NW COAST OF YUCATAN. OTHERWISE MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN WITH OBS SUGGESTING SEAS 3-4 FT EXCEPT FAR E AND FAR SW. DEEP LOW TO DRIFT NE INTO WRN LOUISIANA AND FILL BY SAT AND THEN LIFT OUT OF AREA FOR SLIGHT INCREASE IN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 15-20 THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND POSSIBLY OFF THE MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS DEEP WATER HORIZON DISASTER ZONE. A FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING S TO NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE SUN NIGHT WILL CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF TO TURN SW TO W LATE SUN AS WEAK RIDGING FROM THE W ATLC OCCURS UNDERNEATH FRONTAL ZONE. BROAD FETCH FROM YUCATAN REGION N TO MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI SHOULD YIELD 5-6 FT SEAS SAT AND SUN WITH ISOLATED SPOTS HIGHER. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING FROM NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE NE INTO ATLC BLOCKING ATLC RIDGE FROM BUILDING INTO ENTIRE CARIB...WHILE NW TO SE ORIENTED CYCLONIC GYRE ACROSS EPAC ALONG ABOUT 90W INDUCING SELY FLOW ACROSS CARIB W OF 70W THEN FUNNELING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE ATLC TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A WEAK HIGH TO DEVELOP ALONG 70W WHILE EPAC GYRE SHIFTS FARTHER W AND NW. THIS TO ALLOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OF MORE ELY DIRECTION OF SPREAD FROM E CARIB TO JUST BEYOND 80W SAT...HIGHEST TO AROUND 25 KT OFF OF COLOMBIA...AND SE 20 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIB INTO THE YUCATAN. SEAS TO BUILD 8-9 OFF COLOMBIA AND DOWNWIND. GRADIENT TO RELAX LATE SUN INTO MONDAY AS FRONT PUSHES INTO SE U.S. AND WEAKENS ATLC RIDGE. SAL CURRENTLY DOMINATING E HALF OF CARIB WITH NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES...AND WILL SHIFT INTO NW CARIB SAT AIDING IN PROMOTING LLVL WIND SURGE AND FRESH WINDS. TUTT REFLECTION FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW TO E OF THE LEEWARDS HAS LLVL REFLECTION AND ACTING TO KEEP ATLC HIGH FROM RIDGING S. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME STRETCHED NE TO SW NEXT 36 HOURS AND ALLOW ATLC HIGH TO BUILD INTO TROPICAL ATLC WATERS BY MID WEEK. UNTIL THAT TIME LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL N OF 16/17N AND MODERATE TRADES BECOMING BRIEFLY ENHANCED BY PASSING TROPICAL WAVES. NARROW BAND OF SAL AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE ALONG 50W MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SQUALLY CONDITIONS S OF 12N TONIGHT AND SAT. DUE TO BLOCKAGE OF ATLC HIGH...TRADES REMAIN AT 20 KT AND LESS ACROSS THE ATLC AND YIELDING SEAS OF 6 FT OR LESS. SW N ATLC... MID TO UPPER LEVEL S/W CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA AND THEN THE SW N ATLC TO INCITE SCATTERED SMALL AREAS OF DEEP CNVTN. BEST MOISTURE FOR THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL SHIFT E OF 65W BY SAT MORNING IN RESPONSE TO EWD SHIFTING S/W...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. SOME WEAK LLVL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS NE TO AROUND 70W THROUGH MON OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO OTHERWISE PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT AND SUBSIDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS BEEN AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ALONG THIS TROUGH WHILE OTHER MODELS ONLY SHOWING A WEAK CENTER...AND SEE NO EVIDENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS ATTM. 20 KT SELY FLOW COULD DEVELOP NEAR TO NE END OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MODERATE SE TO S WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF REGION LATE SUN INTO MON WITH SW WINDS OF 20 KT EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING