000 AGXX40 KNHC 011714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUN 01 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NE TO NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING E OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS AND UP TO THE NE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W GULF IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW AND SW GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE SPLITS THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO TWO WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF MOVING INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN TONIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF MOVES TO THE NE OFF THE FLORIDA ATLC COAST. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN ALONG 27-28N IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON WED AFTERNOON AND A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE N CENTRAL GULF WATERS THEN WILL MOVE NE-E ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON THU. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER THE W GULF WATERS THIS WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST DURING THE EVENINGS WITH NE 15-20 KT WINDS EXPECTED THERE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... IN THE CARIBBEAN...1012 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 18N86W WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS TO THE LOW AND NE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THESE FEATURES ARE THE REMNANTS OF THE E PACIFIC SYSTEM AGATHA. MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW AND TROUGH TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING THEM OVER LAND BY EARLY WED. EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (15-20 KT) OCCURRING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADES WILL EXPAND AND PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN BY WED AND WED NIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH MAY FORM IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 10N-11N. OTHERWISE TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN LATE FRI THROUGH SAT...WITH 20-25 KT POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AS A RESULT SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD UP TO 7-10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FRI-SAT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 22N55W TO 19.5N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS ATLC RIDGING TO THE N STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL COVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WED (EXCEPT FOR NE-E WINDS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING)...THEN WILL BECOMING NE-E S OF 18N AND WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR SE PORTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING THERE. THIS FRONT WILL DEGENERATE INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR SE AREA TROUGH THU. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE GULF STREAM JUST E OF FLORIDA THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY WED NIGHT. A FRONTAL TROUGH HAS DROPPED S OF 31N AND EXTENDS FROM 29N55W TO 29N60W TO 31N65W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WEAK ATLC RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. WEAK ATLC RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT FOR SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION LATE THU THROUGH SAT AS SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS SKIRT ACROSS 30N-31N. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY