000 AGXX40 KNHC 311836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RIDGE ALONG 27N AND E OF 90W WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE AREA SHOWED WINDS FROM MAINLY A SE-S DIRECTION...EXCEPT E-SE IN THE SW ZONE. LATEST SEASTATE ANALYSIS REVEALED SEAS OF 1-2 FT THROUGHOUT WITH A VERY SMALL POCKET OF 3 FOOT SEAS ALONG 24N AND W OF 87W. WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WINDS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SE-S 10-15 BY LATE WED AND INTO FRI...MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SE AS A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS FROM THE REMNANTS OF A RECENT EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES NW ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF TUE AND WED. MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CANADIAN WHICH DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND TRACKS IT NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WED AND THU. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLN...AS FOR NOW THE BEST APPROACH FOR THIS POSSIBLE SITUATION AS IT RELATES TO THIS FORECAST IS TO FORECAST A TROUGH FOR FOR DAYS 3-5 INCREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF INCLUDING YUCATAN CHANNEL AND VICINITY OF YUCATAN PENINSULA WED INTO THU BEFORE DAMPENING OUT AS IT GETS FURTHER W. SW N ATLC... A TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE WATERS EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NE TO E OF THE AREA AT 21N65W. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SE-S WINDS 10-15 KT WINDS W OF 70W...AND N-NE WINDS OF 10 KT E OF 70W. SEAS RANGED IN HEIGHTS FROM 3-5 FT N OF 26N...AND 2-4 FT S OF 26N...EXCEPT 4-6 FT E OF BAHAMAS THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUE AS IT WEAKENS PULLING AWAY MUCH OF THE SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY THAT HAD BEEN PLAGUING THOSE OVERS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISH NEAR 30N THROUGH TUE WED...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LATEST MODELS AGAIN SUGGEST THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE SE PORTION WITH A NE TO SE WIND SHIFT...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS IT THEN ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE INTO FRI. WILL BE GENERAL IN DESCRIBING THIS FEATURE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... A 1010 MB LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 18N86W WITH A TROUGH SW TO NW HONDURAS. AS MENTIONED UNDER THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...THIS FEATURE IS THE REMNANTS FROM WHAT WAS JUST RECENTLY AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS WITH THE LOW. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED NE-E 15 KT WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE N AND NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BECOME UNCERTAIN LATTER IN THE PERIOD BUT SHOULD BE N OR NW OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING THAT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FLOW HAS KICKED IN AGAIN ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER ON TUE THROUGH WED...AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU TO INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA FRI. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO POSSIBLY TO 20 KT S OF 14N THROUGH THU. ELY TRADES INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FRI AND SAT...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC AS THE ATLC HIGH SHIFTS E WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP BETWEEN IT AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE