000 AGXX40 KNHC 281859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... 1800 UTC PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1015 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR 24N95W WITH A WEAK RIDGE SE TO NEAR WESTERN CUBA. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A WEAK HIGH PRES TO CONTINUE MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KT...WITH DIRECTIONS OF NW-N IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT IN THE W PORTION EXCEPT NE-E IN THE SW PORTION. LOW SEASTATE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH WED...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED HEIGHTS POSSIBLE IN THE SE PORTION MON THROUGH WED. SW N ATLC... A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 29N66W AT 1800 UTC MOVING ESE AT 17 KT. THE LOW WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA EARL TONIGHT. A TROUGH FROM THE LOW EXTENDS SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH A TROUGH THAT REACHES FROM THE CARIBBEAN NE TO THE JUST N OF HISPANIOLA ON SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AND TRACK IN A GENERAL NE DIRECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA SAT AND SUN AS A RIDGE SETS UP ROUGHLY ALONG 31N SAT AND SUN...THEN SLIDES S TO NEAR 27N BY WED WITH THE ATTENDANT HIGH CENTER OVER THE FAR NE PORTION. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN OVER THE WEEKEND SHOWING THE LOW TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH WINDS STRONGEST ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND HIGH PRES TO ITS E. THE NAM...INTERESTINGLY DROPS THE LOW NEAR 29N66W STRAIGHT S AND MERGES WITH THE NEW LOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN. RIGHT NOW THIS DOESN'T SEEM POSSIBLE AS THE LOW NEAR 29N66W IS PRESENTLY ACCELERATING ITS INCREASING ITS FORWARD MOTION. WILL INCREASE IN SE PORTION FOR THE WEEKEND AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE LOW APPROACHING FROM SW. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... MONSOON TROUGH REGIME HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND IN SHIP/BUOY AND LAND OBSERVATIONS. ALSO ASCAT DATA REVEALED THE WIND SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. PRESENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT LOW PRES IS FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH JUST W OF JAMAICA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH SUN...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC SW TO NW HONDURAS BY MON. AN ATLC RIDGE IS SHIFTING S WITH ITS E TO W AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG 20N TODAY AND FRI THEN RETRACT EASTWARD SAT AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. LIGHT FLOW IN NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF THE TROUGH. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL INCREASE SLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W THROUGH AT LEAST SUN MORNING AS LATER THE LOW SHOULD BE N OF THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE ARE ENOUGH TO ALREADY ALLOW FOR SLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 KT. WITH THE LOW FORMING THESE WINDS SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE SOME MORE IN THE VERY MOIST SLY FLOW. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW ONCE IT HAS FORMED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ 0FORECASTER AGUIRRE