000 AGXX40 KNHC 280809 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 410 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTER OVER WESTERN GULF DRIFT SE INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN. HIGH PRES DISSIPATES LATE SAT. ATLC RIDGE EXTEND W INTO EASTERN GULF WATERS SUN WITH GENTLE BREEZE INCREASING TO MODERATE BREEZE BY TUE. SW N ATLC... SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER 1004 MB AT 31N70W MOVE E AND MERGE WITH WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS N ATLC. LOW PRES WEAKEN AND REACH 31N60W TONIGHT THEN RACE NE OUT OF FORECAST WATERS SAT. AREA OF STRONG WINDS AROUND SE QUADRANT OF LOW PRES CENTER TODAY INCREASE TO NEAR GALE AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE SE OF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N55W TO 23N65W...BUT ALSO EXPECTED TO BE E OF FORECAST WATERS BY LATE SAT. BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVE IN IN WAKE OF LOW PRES/COLD FRONT EASTWARD MOVE WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE N OF 27N WHILE SECOND LOW PRES 1007 MB FORMING OVER NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO BASIN ACROSS WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE SAT. LOW PRES CENTER MOVE NE ACROSS SE PART OF SW N ATLC BASIN EXPECTED TO BE E OF AREA LATE MON AS 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTER ALONG 31N DRIFT S ESTABLISHING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE REGIME ACROSS BASIN. NAM AND GFS CONCUR IN THIS SCENARIO WHILE ECMWF SHOWS MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM ON SIMILAR TRACK. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... WEAK BUT PERSISTENT STATIONARY TROUGH ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN FROM SE CUBA TO S BELIZE HAVE ALL INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM IN VICINITY OF JAMAICA WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER 1009 MB EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO SW N ATLC THEN CONTINUE NE AWAY FROM...BUT VERY CLOSE TO...GREATER ANTILLES. LOW PRES CENTER KEEPS WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN WITH MODERATE S TO SW BREEZE OVER EASTERN HALF AND LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE OVER WESTERN HALF ONCE IT EXITS BASIN. NAM TRACK MORE TO THE S...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WHICH MAINTAINS STRONGER WINDS OVER NE CARIBBEAN. FORECAST MORE IN TUNE WITH GFS WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES