000 AGXX40 KNHC 271852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... ATLC LOW PRES E OF N FL WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOMEWHAT DRYING TROUGHS SE THROUGH FL AND THE FAR E GULF WATERS. THE INITIAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS WHILE A SECOND TROUGH IS ALREADY EVIDENT OVER N FL AND THE EXTREME NE GULF WATERS. EXPECT THIS SECOND TROUGH TO SWEEP S THIS EVENING AND FRI. ELSEWHERE...VERY WEAK HIGH PRES IS MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES PATTERN THROUGHOUT AS EVIDENT IN THE LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KT ...MAINLY NW-N IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT IN THE W PORTION EXCEPT NE-E IN DIRECTION ON THE SW PORTION. LOW SEASTATE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 FT WILL ALSO CONTINUE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE FURTHER PROLONGED AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG 27N ON FRI AND HOLDS THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLC... A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS OBSERVED TO BE NEAR 31N73W AT 1800 UTC AND MOVING E ABOUT 7 KT. EXPECT THE LOW TO WEAKEN AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AS ITS REMNANTS PASSES NEAR BERMUDA FRI. A SERIES OF TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS. THIS INITIAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE E REACHING THE SE BAHAMAS FRI MORNING. BY THEN A SECOND TROUGH...ALREADY ENHANCING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER N AND CENTRAL FL...WILL MOVE SE TO OVER THE NW BAHAMAS WHERE IT SHOULD STALL. A THIRD TROUGH WILL FOLLOW SAT AND MERGE WITH THE QUASI STATIONARY SECOND BOUNDARY RESULTING IN A TROUGH DISSECTING THE AREA FROM 22N60W NEAR NW HAITI...AND ACROSS SE CUBA MERGING WITH A BROAD AND PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS SETS UP THE PATTERN FOR ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH AND TRACK IN A GENERAL NE DIRECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA SAT AND SUN. GFS LIKE CANADIAN AND NAM SIMILAR IN DEPICTING SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LOW THAT POSSIBLY FORMS NEAR JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA ON SAT...AND SHOOTS OFF TO THE NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN SW N ATLC ON SUN AND MON BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THIS SCENARIO COULD WELL BE SHORT-LIVED. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN... BROAD LOW PRESSURE S OF CUBA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A REINFORCED ATLC TROUGH N OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE CORRESPONDING NW CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ATLC RIDGE IS SHIFTING S WITH ITS E TO W AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG 20N TODAY AND FRI THEN RETRACT EASTWARD SAT AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BY SUN...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MEANDER NEAR JAMAICA WITH SLY FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AND LIGHT NLY WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS. THE TROUGH MOVES E TO THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON MON AND LINGER THOUGH POSSIBLY TUE. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT NE-E W OF THE OF THE TROUGH WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ALL WATERS E OF THE TROUGH. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST OF LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NW CARIBBEAN TROUGH...AND IF SO...ITS RAPID NE TRACK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ 0FORECASTER AGUIRRE