000 AGXX40 KNHC 251914 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH WAS JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A WEAK RIDGE WAS NOSING INTO THE FAR NE GULF...WITH A WEAK TROUGH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO 26N85W SEPARATING THE TWO HIGHS. MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WAS FOUND S OF THE RIDGES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF WITH MAX SEAS TO 6 FT IN THE SE PER BUOY 42055. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL MEANDER GENERALLY IN A S MOTION AS THE ATLC LOW PRES ROTATES A SERIES OF TROUGHS...OR WEAK COLD FRONTS...SE THROUGH FL AND THE E GULF WATERS. EXPECT THE FIRST TROUGH TO MOVE SE REACHING THE FL STRAITS WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECOND...ALSO QUITE WEAK...NW SURGE THROUGHOUT FRI. EXPECT THE LOCAL EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THU NIGHT. ATLC...UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE BROAD SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SW ATLC PAST FEW DAYS HAS ROTATED AND BECOME MORE NW TO SE AND CIRCULAR AND THE ASSOCIATED LLVL CIRCULATION HAS REFLECTED THIS. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N72W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW AND MEANDER TO VICINITY OF 32N74W BY THU THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE AND BECOME ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. GALES HAVE LIFTED N OUT OF THE AREA AND WEAKENED...BUT STILL WITH 20-30 KT WINDS TO THE N OF AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING WELL E-SE OF THE LOW NEAR 28N60W...AND 20 KT OF W-SW FLOW NEAR THE S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. HAVE ONCE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF BEYOND 48 HOURS AS GFS RACES LOW OUT TO NE AND APPEARS TOO FAST. SOME MOISTURE AND WEATHER BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND INTO NW QUAD OF LOW AND LEADING TO SLOW SECLUSION PROCESS. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE THU. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THU...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AFFECTING SE PORTIONS INCLUDING THE NE CARIB ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL LEAD TO ACTIVE WEATHER THERE. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...THE BROAD LOW PRES N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS EXCEPT FOR 20-25 KT TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE SRN WINDWARDS ATTM. THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EPAC EXTENDS WEAKLY INTO THE FAR SW CARIB AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT N WITH A POTENTIAL DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE EPAC NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SELY FLOW E OF 70W AND CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSING THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT FROM THE FAR TROPICAL EPAC AND SW CARIBBEAN NE INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVES BRINGING MODEST SE WIND SURGES AND SQUALLS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING