000
AGXX40 KNHC 250654
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...A NW TO SE RIDGE FROM SE LA TO DRY TORTUGAS 
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT W TODAY AS A TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE 
INTERIOR N CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL MEANDER 
OVER THE NE COASTAL PLAINS...EVENTUALLY MOVING SE AS ATLC LOW 
PRES ROTATES A SERIES OF TROUGHS...OR WEAK COLD FRONTS...SE 
THROUGH FL AND THE E GULF WATERS. EXPECT THE FIRST TROUGH TO 
MOVE SE REACHING THE FL STRAITS WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A 
SECOND...ALSO QUITE WEAK...NW SURGE THROUGHOUT FRI. EXPECT THE 
LOCAL EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN LOCAL EVENT 
BECOMES MASKED BY A MEANDERING RIDGE FROM THE NW WATERS TO THE 
SE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

ATLC...A SURFACE LOW AT 28N71W IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW AND 
MEANDER VICINITY 30N74W THROUGH FRI THEN RACE OUT TO THE NE 
PASSING NEAR BERMUDA LATE SAT...ROUGHLY 12 HOURS LATER THAN 
YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. ALTHOUGH A TROUGH STILL EXTENDS S 
FROM LOW TO HAITI A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EXTENDS NE-E-SE TO
A SHARP WIND SHIFT NEAR 27N59W. RECENT SHIP OBS AND ASCAT PASS 
INDICATE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE...THUS WILL DROP ALL 
MENTION OF GALE NEXT TEXT PACKAGE. THE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO 
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE QUASI- 
STATIONARY LOW. THE FIRST SE MOVING TROUGH WILL REACH THE NW 
BAHAMAS LATE WED AND THE SE BAHAMAS LATE THU WHERE IT WILL BEGIN 
TO MERGE WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS N-S ALONG 70W. GUIDANCE SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE 
THEREAFTER AS IT MOVES THIS MERGED TROUGH E ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT 
PRECEDED BY SW WINDS 20-25 KT FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N50W.

TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...THE BROAD LOW PRES N OF THE AREA 
IS RESULTING IN LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS 
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SE OVER WATERS E OF 72W. LATEST GUIDANCE 
A LITTLE DIFFERENT AND NOW SUGGESTS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE 
W CARIBBEAN LATER PART OF THIS WEEK. TROPICAL WAVES SEEM TO 
REMAIN S OF 10N WITH A WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 55W EXPECTED TO 
TRANSVERSE ATLC WATERS S OF 10N TODAY AND INLAND S AMERICA ALONG 
61W TONIGHT. 

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
0FORECASTER NELSON