000 AGXX40 KNHC 241921 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO...A MODEST RIDGE EXTENDS SW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY..WHILE A WEAK SUBTLE TROUGH ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST EXTENDS SW THEN W ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NW FL AND AL. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE COASTAL PLAINS...EVENTUALLY MOVING SE AS ATLC LOW PRES ROTATES A SERIES OF TROUGHS...OR WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH...SE THROUGH FL AND THE E GULF WATERS. EXPECT THE FIRST TROUGH TO MOVE SE REACHING THE FL STRAITS WED EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND STRONGER NW SURGE THROUGHOUT FRI. EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE S AND W GULF WITH 15 KT WINDS...AND POCKETS TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SW AND W THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. ATLC...BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW PRES CONTINUES NEARLY N TO S ALONG 69-71W THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL LOW CLOUD SWIRLS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MEAN CENTER NEAR 28N70W. DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN SEMICIRCLE AND THE SE QUAD IS AN ELONGATED BAND OF 20-30 KT WINDS WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF 30-40 KT AS DEPICTED BY LATE MORNING ASCAT PASSES. THE GFS IS DOING A REASONABLE JOB TODAY INITIALIZING THE LLVL WIND FIELD...BUT ASCAT WINDS SUGGEST THE WINDS ON THE S SIDE OF THIS ELONGATED WIND BAND MAY EXTEND A BIT FARTHER S OF 27.5N OR SO NEAR THE MEAN LOW. BUOY 41048 HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING 30-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS NOW UP TO 15 FT. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT DIVERGE AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE GFS LIFTS THE LOW OUT TO THE NE QUICKLY...WHILE SEVERAL OTHERS MAINTAIN A STRONGER LOW NEAR 1002 MB OR SO NEAR 31N75/76W AND THEN MOVE IT VERY SLOWLY E FOR A FEW DAYS...ALSO ALLOWING FOR SOME BETTER ORGANIZATION. WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS AND LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF/NOGAPS AND CMC AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO FAST. GALES WILL LIFT N OF THE LOW WATERS BY 36 HOURS WITH NNE SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS W OF 75W THROUGH THU. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...THE BROAD LOW PRES N OF THE AREA IS RESULTING IN LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS ALSO BEING INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOONAL GYRE ACROSS THE FAR EPAC AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE SW CARIB WILL LIFT N THROUGH LATE WED AND MAINTAIN LIGHT AND VARYING WINDS ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC AND E CARIB TUE AND TUE NIGHT TO FRESHEN THE FLOW...BUT THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND MID LATE FLOW BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NUDGES THE ATLC RIDGE BACK INTO THE EASTERN ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TRACK DUE TO SELY LLVL FLOW W OF 50W AND EPAC MONSOON GYRE. WARNINGS... ATLC... AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 62W...AND N OF 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 57W. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING