000
AGXX40 KNHC 240707
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
305 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...A NW TO SE RIDGE FROM LA TO NW CUBA WILL WEAKEN 
AND SHIFT W TONIGHT AS A TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE INTERIOR N 
CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE 
COASTAL PLAINS...EVENTUALLY MOVING SE AS ATLC LOW PRES ROTATES A 
SERIES OF TROUGHS...OR WEAK COLD FRONTS...SE THROUGH FL AND THE 
E GULF WATERS. EXPECT THE FIRST TROUGH TO MOVE SE REACHING THE 
FL STRAITS WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECOND STRONGER NW SURGE 
THROUGHOUT FRI. EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF NE-E WINDS 
ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH WED NIGHT 
WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEK.

ATLC...A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS ALONG 69W...ONE AT 28N AND THE 
SECOND NEAR 24N. EXPECT THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER TO BECOME 
DOMINATE WITH THE GRADIENT N AND E OF THE CENTER SUPPORTING GALE 
WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A 
TROUGH...OR WEAK WARM FRONT...EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT E-SE WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE N OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 65W-55W INTO TUE NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE A SECOND SURFACE 
LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS LIKELY 
CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTION. AS FOR THE MAIN LOW CENTER... 
GUIDANCE NOW MEANDERS THE LOW ALONG 31N BETWEEN 71W-76W THROUGH 
WED NIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE IT E WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT 
PASSING NEAR BERMUDA AROUND SUNRISE SAT. AS THE LOW MEANDERS IT 
WILL ROTATE A SERIES OF TROUGHS OR WEAK COLD FRONTS SE OVER ITS 
W SEMICIRCLE. EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO DRIFT THE LOW CENTER 
FURTHER W...AND THUS THE NW WINDS BEHIND THESE TROUGH GETS A 
LITTLE STRONGER EACH MODEL RUN...AND NOW EXPECT AT LEAST A 15-20 
KT SW-NW WIND SHIFT WITH EACH TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS COULD DRIVE 
NW SWELLS...SEAS TO 7 FT...INTO THE BAHAMA CHANNEL BY MOD WEEK. 

TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...THE BROAD LOW PRES N OF THE AREA 
IS RESULTING IN LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS 
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SE OVER WATERS E OF 70W. THIS PATTERN 
WILL SHIFT FURTHER W AS A NE-SE TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM HISPANIOLA 
TO COSTA RICA BY MID WEEK...THEN MEANDERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WEEK.  

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
AMZ080...GALE WARNING WITHIN 240 NM NE LINE 28N72W 28N65W 23N61W.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
0FORECASTER NELSON