000 AGXX40 KNHC 221910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO...AN E-W RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT SE RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT OVER NW PORTION THROUGH MON NIGHT....THEN RIDGE WEAKENS AND REALIGNS YIELDING MORE ELY WINDS AROUND 15 KT...AS LOW ACROSS SW N ATLC SHIFT W TO NW TOWARD THE SE U.S. COAST. EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF NE-E WINDS ALONG THE N AND W YUCATAN PENINSULA. ATLC...COMPLEX DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE AREA W OF 62W THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MEAN CENTER NOT MOVING MUCH NEAR 22N70W...WITH LLVL TROUGH EXTENDING NW...AND A SECOND MORE N-NE TO NEAR 29N. ASCAT PASSES LATE THIS MORNING DEPICT A SOMEWHAT NARROW BAND OF 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 24N-28N E OF 72W...EXTENDING FARTHER S E OF 60W. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NEW LOW WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE MID LEVEL VORT INVOF 26N68/69W TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH ACROSS THE NW ATLC SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SE. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE N AND NE SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW AND GRADUALLY YIELD NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN AN EXPANDING BANDS DRAPED ACROSS THE N OF THE NEW LOW. I HAVE STARTED GALE CONDITIONS MUCH EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BEGINNING AT 06Z TONIGHT IN A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE NE QUAD OF THIS NEW LOW...THEN EXPAND THEM E-W. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS THAT THE NEW AND SLOWLY DEEPENING LOW WILL SLIDE NW TO NEAR 29.5N70.5W...BUT THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT IN THE MOTION OF THE LOW. THIS REMAINS PROBLEMATIC FOR E COASTS OF THE U.S. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA HAS WEAKENED WITH BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS RESULTING IN LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS. BROAD LOW PRES ALSO EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCED BY 15-20 KT NE WINDS AROUND THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE ATLC LOW PRES. TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY A MORE SELY FLOW N OF 11-12N AND SHEARING MOISTURE AND SOME OF THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE WAVES...INCLUDING A W-NW MOTION. AN ACTIVE AND MOIST WAVE ALONG 55W THIS AFTERNOON WILL SPREAD SQUALLS AND TSTMS NW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE WINDS WAVES BY MORNING. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW AND TOWARDS THE E SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...YIELDING SELY WINDS AND SQUALLY WEATHER. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 27-30N BETWEEN 72W AND 62W TONIGHT-SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING