000 AGXX40 KNHC 220640 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EDT SAT MAY 22 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO...AN E-W RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL SUPPORT SE RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 KT OVER NW PORTION THROUGH SUN NIGHT....THEN MOSTLY ELY WINDS AT 15 KT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE INTERIOR N CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM SW FL TO SW LA BY MID WEEK. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE COMPLEX LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT JUST N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND HOW STRONG THE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER ITS W SEMICIRCLE...AND ITS EFFECT ON ENE WINDS IN THE FL STRAITS. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE PULSING AT 15-20 KT AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MON NIGHT. EXPECT THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. ATLC...WEAK AND BROAD SURFACE LOW PRES NEAR 25N73W 1012 MB IS FILLING FAST. EXPECT A SECOND LOW PRES TO DEVELOP FURTHER E NEAR 26N68W TODAY. THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE N ALONG 70W TO A PSN N OF 31N EARLY TUE NIGHT BUT TRAIL A SURFACE TROUGH S TO HISPANIOLA WHICH MAY MEANDER OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN N OF THE LOW INCREASING WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE SUN AFTERNOON...N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 60W...WITH THE CONDITIONS SHIFTING N OF 31N MON NIGHT...OR AT THE LATEST EARLY TUE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES N IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WED. MODELS HINTING THE LOW MAY LOOP NEAR 31N72W WED NIGHT AND RETURN INTO THE AREA THU ACCOMPANIED BY THE FRONT. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...ATLC RIDGE N OF AREA HAS WEAKENED WITH BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS RESULTING IN LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS. BROAD LOW PRES ALSO EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCED BY 15-20 KT NE WINDS AROUND THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE ATLC LOW PRES. A TROPICAL WAVE SETTING OFF CONVECTION S OF 10N ALONG 58W SHOULD MOVE INLAND S AMERICA TODAY. A WAVE S OF 10N ALONG 37W TODAY IS ONLY MOVING W AT 10 KT AND SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W AROUND SUNSET WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 60W SUN-MON. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON