000 AGXX40 KNHC 190752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT WED MAY 19 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST PRELIMINARY SURFACE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS VALID 0600 UTC REVEALS A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF E OF ABOUT 90W. LATEST AND RECENT BUOY AND OFFSHORE PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS RANGE FROM SE-S IN FAR NW WATERS TO NE-E IN SW ZONE AND FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT N OF 27N E OF 91W WHERE WINDS ARE NOW SW-W AT 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE...BUT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED. OBSERVED SEASTATE AS REPORTED BY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW SEAS HEIGHT WITH RANGES FROM 1-2 FT ACROSS ALL OF THE GULF...EXCEPT 2-3 FT IN THE SW ZONE AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR THE W SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE 00 UTC WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE SW ZONE WHERE GUIDANCE IS UNDONE BY ABOUT 1-2 FT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVERALL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE SE PORTION AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA BEGINNING LATE FRI THROUGH SUN WITH PINCHING OFF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING THAT BUILDS W AND STRENGTHENS WHILE LOW PRES FORMS TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS. GFS MODEL IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SUGGESTING THIS INCREASE IN WINDS BY STARTING IT ON THU AS IT DEVELOPS A LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. PRESENTLY...HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE MOST POSSIBLE IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SE WATERS E OF 91W. THE OTHER CHANGE WILL BE SEEN IN INCREASING RETURN SLY FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND INTERACTS WITH THE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE WINDS THEN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON THU...AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE FRI THROUGH SUN AS LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS AGAIN DEEPENS. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE IS ANALYZED ALONG 27N E OF ABOUT 80W. SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS AGAIN ALLOWING FOR A SMALL POCKET OF E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE S OF 21N E OF THE BAHAMAS AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS...AND IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0200 UTC. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WINDS ARE LIGHTER E-SE S OF 26N...AND SE-S N OF 26N EXCEPT IN THE NE SECTION WHERE WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE 5-10 KT. SEAS RANGE FROM 2-4 FT N OF 26N W OF 71W...TO 3-5 FT N OF 26N E OF 71W...AND 5-7 FT S OF 26N E OF BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT W OF BAHAMAS. A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE AND ON NW DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY IS SPREADING FROM SW TO N ACROSS THE SW PORTION S OF 26N AND W OF 75W. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RATHER VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS FURTHER E ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS...STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA DURING TODAY THROUGH FRI. AS THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SPREADS E...THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO E OF THE AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT OVER THE SE U.S. SHOULD MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A TROUGH FEATURE WITH A SUBSEQUENT LOW MATERIALIZING JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE O6 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH ROUGHLY ALONG 71W/72W S OF 26N. AS UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WLYS TO THE E OF THE LOW TRANSLATE EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...THAT IS WHAT SHOULD THEN HELP FORTIFY THE TROUGH WITH LOW PRES SPINNING UP ON THE TROUGH. MODELS DIFFER TO SOME EXTENT WITH EVENTUALLY EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS FOR THE LATTER DAYS OF THE THIS FORECAST. BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN LIKE THE LOW SCENARIO STARTING JUST E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON THU WITH EUROPEAN TAKING IT NE TO NEAR 28N70W BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE GFS DEVELOPS TWO LOWS...TAKING ONE E TO NEAR 25N65W BY LATE SUN...AND THE OTHER ONE W AND THEN S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUN. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AGREE THAT A PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH WILL TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS S FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TAKES PLACE ON SUN. THE MAIN THING WITH THIS SCENARIO WILL NOT SOME MUCH THAT A LOW SHOULD FORM...BUT THAT THE SQUEEZE PLAY THAT WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN THE TROUGH/LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE E OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NE AND E PORTIONS BEGINNING ON FRI AND THROUGH SUN WITH INDICATIONS OF ELY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE INSTANCES OF GUSTS TO 30 KT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH THE ATLC RIDGE BEING RATHER WEAK AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD...WINDS THROUGHOUT ARE LIGHTER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0200 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A POCKET OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 14N AND BETWEEN 70W-76W. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF ABOUT 16N...AND ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA WHERE SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE NOTED. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON SAT. BUOY 41101 IS REPORTING E WINDS OF 20 KT. 06 UTC SEASTATE ANALYSIS NOTED THAT SEAS HAVE LOWERED AS WELL SINCE THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT NEAR 14N76W. A LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY WELL E OF THE AREA MAY APPROACH THE FAR SE TROPICAL N ATLC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE