000 AGXX40 KNHC 180802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST PRELIMINARY SURFACE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS VALID 0600 UTC HAS A 1017 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N87W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 25N84W AND NW TO NE TEXAS. LATEST AND RECENT BUOY AND PLATFORM DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND DIRECTIONS RANGE FROM SE-S IN THE NW ZONE TO NE-E IN SW ZONE AND FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT N OF 27N E OF 91W WHERE WINDS ARE NOW SW-W AT 10 KT. WIND SPEEDS ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE...BUT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OBSERVED. HIGHER WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED TSTMS THAT REDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATER TODAY WITH MOVEMENT FROM W TO E. OBSERVED SEASTATE AS REPORTED BY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS HEIGHT RANGES FROM 2-4 FT...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT IN A SE SWELL NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND IN THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE FAR NE WATERS SEAS REMAIN LOW...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RETURN SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS LATE SAT AS LOW PRES BECOMES PRESENT W OF THE AREA...AND A RIDGE BUILDS W FROM THE ATLC ALONG 30N. NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT AN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST IN THE EVENINGS THROUGH THU NIGHT. A TROUGH MAY MOVE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE ZONE THU AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF ON FRI BEFORE WEAKENING. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN...THEN SOME INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP S TO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT... THEN STALLS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES THROUGH THU. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM 27N65W SW TO THE NW BAHAMAS AT 0600 UTC.W TO NEAR 79W. A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR A SMALL POCKET OF E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 67W AS SEE IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0214 UTC...AND AS BEING REPORTED BY A SHIP MOVING SE NEAR 20N69W. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER E-SE...IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE EXCEPT N OF 27N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W WHERE WINDS ARE S-SW 15 TO 20 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA TO TO NE FLORIDA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION BY THU MORNING AS THE WEAK TROUGH PUSHES SE INTO THE NW PORTION THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS WED. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED EVENING. ITS SOUTHERN PORTION WILL THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THU THROUGH SAT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING THAT A WEAK TROUGH MAY MAY DEVELOP OVER THE S AND SW WATERS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE WELL PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATER TODAY. MODELS THEN SHOW THAT SURFACE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY LIFTS NE THROUGH SAT WITH A POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SW BEHIND IT. THE DIFFERENCES INDICATED BY THE MODELS ARE MAINLY WITH TROUGH POSITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEY ALL PRETTY MUCH INDICATE THAT THE LOW SHOULD BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. AS FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ONCE IT FORMS...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL BY ABOUT 15-20 KT TO THE E OF THE TROUGH IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA...WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE THU THROUGH SAT. OF COURSE WINDS MAY BE MUCH HIGHER IF GRADIENT TIGHTENS MORE BETWEEN THE TROUGH/LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE E. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH THE ATLC RIDGE NOW WEAKENING AS IT SLIDES TO THE E...WINDS THROUGHOUT HAVE DIMINISHED IN SPEEDS SINCE YESTERDAY AS EVIDENT IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM SHORTLY PAST 0200 UTC LAST NIGHT. WINDS ARE STILL HIGHER IN A PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE 15-20 KT E WINDS WERE DETECTED BY 0030 ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA WHERE SIMILAR SPEEDS ARE NOTED. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON SAT. BUOY 41101 IS REPORTING E WINDS OF 20 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS WERE ANALYZED AT 0600 UTC TO REACH 10 FT IN THE SW SECTION. A LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY WELL E OF OF THE AREA MAY APPROACH THE FAR SE TROPICAL N ATLC IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE