000
AGXX40 KNHC 170800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 AM EDT MON MAY 17 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
LATEST PRELIMINARY SURFACE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS VALID 0600 UTC
HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 28N E OF ABOUT 85W. RECENT BUOY DATA 
ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THROUGHOUT THE GULF 
ARE NOW RATHER LIGHT MAINLY SE-S IN DIRECTION...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SW ZONE WHERE THEY ARE E-SE IN DIRECTION. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
FOR THE MOST PART IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE...BUT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE
SPEEDS ARE 10-15 KT. HIGHER WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN 
SCATTERED TSTMS MOVING FROM W TO E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF.

OBSERVED SEASTATE AS REPORTED BY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
SEAS HEIGHT RANGES FROM 2-4 FT...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT IN A SE SWELL
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE FAR NE WATERS SEAS REMAIN LOW
...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WINDS THROUGHOUT REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER ON THUS RETURN FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS LOW
PRES BECOMES PRESENT W OF THE AREA...AND A RIDGE BUILDS W FROM THE
ATLC ALONG 30N. OT APPEARS THAT THE INCREASE OF THESE WINDS WILL 
BE BRIEF AS THEY THEN DIMINISH BACK TO 10-15 KT ON FRI. NE-E WINDS
OF 15-20 KT AN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA 
COAST IN THE EVENINGS THROUGH THU NIGHT.

MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES
HEADWAY TOWARDS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF COAST BY EARLY TUE NIGHT. 
THE FRONT THEN MOVES INTO THE FAR NE WATERS LATER ON TUE NIGHT
...AND LINGERS WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH THU. 

SW N ATLC...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N71W WITH A RIDGE W TO NEAR
79W. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE FAR 
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND S AMERICA IS ALLOWING FOR E-SE WINDS
OF 15-20 KT S OF 26N AND W OF 65W. NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ADJACENT
AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE DETECTED BY AN ASCAT PASS 
FROM 0234 UTC LAST NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 
10-15 KT DURING THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER...10-15 
KT NE-E EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF 75W WHERE THEY ARE SE IN DIRECTION
...AND N OF 26N E OF 75W NEAR THE HIGH WHERE THEY ARE LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE.

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE RIDGE SW TO S FLORIDA. THIS WILL TAKE
PLACE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE 
SE U.S. COAST ON WED PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ON TUE. 
WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT WED 
E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT S OF 21N E OF THE BAHAMAS. 
GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM DEPICT THAT THE FRONT
REMAINS WEAK...AND MAKES IT TO THE FAR NE AND E PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY FRI AS IT WASHES OUTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SW WINDS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 15 KT...WITH ONLY A SHORT PERIOD OF 
15-20 KT N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W IN TUE.
 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 
WITH THE ATLC HIGH TO THE N AND LOWERS PRES OVER S AMERICA...
THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE 
TO STRONG N-E WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 
0232 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL
SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. MAXIMUM SEAS WERE ANALYED AT 0600 UTC 
TO REACH 10 FT IN THE SW SECTION. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
TO 15-20 KT TUE...AND TO 10-15 KT WED AND THU WITH NE-E 20 KT 
ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BY THEN. BY FRI WINDS SHOULD BE
NE-E 10-15 THROUGHOUT.

A LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 10N ALONG 52W IS 
MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRONG TSTM 
ACTIVITY WHILE INCREASING THE NE TRADES SOME. THE WAVE IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS 
EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO ENTER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN EARLY MON 
NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE 
TUE THROUGH THU.

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER AGUIRRE