000 AGXX40 KNHC 160800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 30N E OF 90W. RECENT BUOY DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT WINDS HAVE NOW WEAKENED ACROSS THE ARE TO THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE AND E GULF WATERS S OF 26N AS INDICATED BY A PARTIAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT. ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST NE-E 20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED. OBSERVED SEASTATE AS REPORTED BY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAXIMUM SEAS HEIGHTS OF 7-8 FT OVER THE SE AND WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT IN THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NE PART WHERE SEAS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW RANGE OF 1-2 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUN EVENING INTO THE GENERAL RANGE OF 10-15 KT ...EXCEPT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE EVENING OCCURRENCES OF NE 20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED PROBABLY FOR ONE MORE NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THROUGH THU. IN THE FAR NE PART...WINDS SHOULD HOLD AT 5-10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN SECTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF THEN SLIDES E TO THE NE PORTION LATE WED THROUGH THU. A THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE E GULF LATE MON THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE MOVING INLAND N FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLC WATERS E OF NE FLORIDA. SW N ATLC... A 1023 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N69W WITH A RIDGE W TO NE FLORIDA THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND S AMERICA IS ALLOWING FOR A WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUPPORTING NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT S OF 26N INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER...10-15 KT NE-E EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF 76W WHERE THEY ARE SE IN DIRECTION...AND N OF 26N E OF 76W NEAR THE HIGH WHERE THEY ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO RETREAT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WED AND THU IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AS THIS HAPPENS...WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT WED E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT S OF 21N E OF THE BAHAMAS. LATEST GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST IT WILL PROBABLY LINGER AROUND THE FAR NW WATERS WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATE WED INTO THU OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 KT...BUT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW PORTION. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH THE ATLC HIGH TO THE N AND LOWERS PRES OVER S AMERICA... THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY MODERATE TO STRONG N-E WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A POCKET OF NE-E 30 KT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF COLOMBIAN COAST. MAXIMUM SEAS THERE ARE ANALYZED AS 11 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT MON MORNING AND TO 15-20 KT TU...AND TO 10-15 KT WED AND THU WITH NE-E 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BY THEN. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OBSERVED WITH LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE E AT 10-15 KT N OF 15N W OF 80W...AND S OF 14N E OF 69W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU. A LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 10N ALONG 52W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY WHILE INCREASING THE NE TRADES SOME. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO ENTER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN EARLY MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TUE THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE