000 AGXX40 KNHC 150748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE IS JUST N OF THE N OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 90W. RECENT BUOY DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE MOST ACROSS THE GULF. E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE AND E GULF WATERS S OF 26N AS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0315 UTC LAST NIGHT. ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER NE-E 20-25 KT. OBSERVED SEASTATE AS REPORTED BY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE MAXIMUM SEAS HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ...AND UP TO 10 FT IN THE FAR SE PORTION NEAR THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 3-5 FT...EXCEPT IN THE FAR NE PART WHERE SEAS ARE LOWER...1-2 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUN EVENING INTO THE GENERAL RANGE OF 10-15 KT ...EXCEPT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE THE NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY THEN COME UP AGAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS. IN THE FAR NE PART...WINDS SHOULD HOLD AT 5-10 KT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MIDDLE GULF AND THE FAR NE PORTION. HE RIDGE JUST INLAND THE NORTHERN COAST WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE E GULF LATE MON THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLC... A 1027 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N70W WITH A RIDGE TO E OF AREA...AND ANOTHER ONE W TO NEAR NE FLORIDA. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND S AMERICA IS CREATING A RATHER PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUPPORTING NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 26N AS NOTED IN AN ASCAT PASS LATE LAST NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER...10-15 KT NE-E EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF 77W WHERE THEY ARE SE IN DIRECTION...AND IN THE FAR NE PORTION WHERE THEY ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL RETREAT ESE THROUGH TUE IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE U.S. E COAST. AS THIS HAPPENS...WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE WATERS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WHERE N-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL OCCUR THROUGH WED. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COASTS LATE TUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN S-SW WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS AS THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. BY WED...IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N76W TO VICINITY OF NW BAHAMAS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AS THE ATLC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO THE N THE MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 25-30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SEAS OF UP TO 12 FT ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. A LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 10N ALONG 45W IS MOVING W AT 18 KT. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...THEN PASS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TUE AND WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE