000 AGXX40 KNHC 141746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS GULF STATES MAINTAIN STRONG E FLOW ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION IS FORMATION OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN SW ZONE THAT DRIFT NE THROUGH TUE. WIDE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FROM GFS AND OTHER MODELS ON TROUGH. WHILE GFS STRENGTHENS IT AND DEVELOPS 1012 MB LOW PRES OFF S COAST OF LOUISIANA...NAM...NOGAPS AND ECM BARELY RECOGNIZE ITS EXISTENCE TILL MON...WHEN IT IS ALREADY OVER THE COAST. CLOUDS SCHEME PRESENTLY INDICATE LINEAR BOUNDARY IN SW ZONE...SO FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS KINDER AND GENTLER GFS...RATHER THAN THE 1012 MB LOW PRES. ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW S OF 27N IS THE COMBINATION OF GULFSTREAM CURRENT RUNNING AGAINST SUCH WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SUCH CLASH EXPECTED TO LIFT SEA HEIGHTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. GUIDANCE DIMINISH WINDS BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGE DRIFT FURTHER E FORCED BY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG MID ATLC SEABOARD. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES 1027 MB AT 30N75W WITH RIDGE EXTEND E OF AREA MAINTAIN STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS BASIN S OF 27N WITH LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 27N. LONG FETCH INCREASE E SWELL BUT IS SHORT LIVED AS EASTWARD DRIFT OF RIDGE VEERS DIMINISHED WINDS SE. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG MID ATLC SEABOARD SHIFTING WINDS S-SW INCREASING TO STRONG N OF 28N W OF 70W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ATLC HIGH PRES N OF AREA PERSIST WITH FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS DIMINISH TO MODERATE OVER WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND DRIFT E AWAY FROM BASIN. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 48W S OF 11N CAUSES MINOR INCREASE IN E WINDS BUT MIGHT LATER MOVE SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE N AS IT CROSSES CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES