000 AGXX40 KNHC 080828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EDT SAT MAY 08 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NE GULF YDA HAVE MOVED N AND INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AS WEAK HIGH PERSISTS ALONG THE W COAST JUST N OF FT MEYERS. MILD SEAS OF 102 FT PERSIST ACROSS THE NE GULF WHILE SEAS WERE 4-5 FT ACROSS THE SW AND W PORTIONS AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. REMNANTS OF OLD SFC TROUGH ACROSS SW GULF PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED NW AND INTO S TEXAS EMBEDDED IN RETURN FLOW...BRINGING AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...PRODUCING LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS AS LOW AS 4 NM PER COASTAL OBS. THESE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FROM JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TO COASTAL LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA DROPS INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING. STRATIFORM PRECIP WITH SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE CNVTN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS SLOWLY S TO ALONG 27N BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LLVL RIDGING WILL SHIFT W INTO THE W HALF OF THE GULF TODAY AND BLOCK ANY FURTHER SRN MOTION OF THE FRONT THERE WHILE ACROSS E PORTIONS THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FL PANHANDLE COAST AROUND NOON AND SINK S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR NAPLES BY MIDNIGHT WHILE REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS SE TEXAS. A LARGE 1028 MB HIGH SHIFTING E ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT WILL BUILD QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN ALONG THE ATLC COAST TILL TUE MORNING AND COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE NE GULF...YIELDING FRESH RETURN FLOW MON THROUGH WED NIGHT. LOOK FOR 15-20 KT SELY FLOW ACROSS THE NE GULF BY MON AFTERNOON AND 20 KT SE TO S FLOW ACROSS THE W HALF INCREASING TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT. THIS PATTERN AND PERSISTENT SE FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE NE GULF IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FORCING AND COULD FORCE THE SPILLED OIL ACROSS THE AREA WELL INTO THE AREA COASTAL ZONES. LOOK FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 4-5 FT ACROSS THIS AREA IN SE WIND WAVES BY TUE...5-7 OFF THE NW YUCATAN COAST...AND 7-8 ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A 102A MB HIGH JUST NE OF THE AREA WITH RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE NW BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETREAT E LATE SUN THROUGH MON AS THE GULF COLD FRONT DROPS S INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY BRIEF NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS BY MIDNIGHT SUN THEN WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE AS IT BECOME STRUNG OUT E TO W ALONG 25N. THE LARGE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINNING MON AND BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE AREA PARTICULARLY S OF 25N MON NIGHT THROUGH THU. E-NE TO E WINDS AT 20 KT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT FROM THE ATLC SW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT S OF 23N BY TUE NIGHT-WED...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT IN NE SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 5-7 FT LEE OF THE BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE...CENTERED ON A 1022 MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E-NE THROUGH SUN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE INTO THE NE GULF AND ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE SW ATLC. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC LATE SUN THROUGH TUE TO GREATLY INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. 20-25 KT NE TO E TRADES ACROSS THE SRN CARIB TONIGHT WILL EXPAND N AND NW MON NIGHT AND SPILL THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN LEE OF CUBA...AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AREA OF GALES THERE. A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE SEEN IN STLT IMAGERY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONE WAS MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND REGIONAL ATLC WATERS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS....MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLC. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WARM SEASON HAS COMMENCED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND TROPICAL WAVES HAVE BEGUN TO TRAVERSE THE BASIN. A SERIES OF LOW LATITUDE WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS S PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE FIRST ENTERING SE PORTIONS THIS EVENING...THEN A SECOND MON NIGHT. ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THESE WAVES...ALONG WITH A 20 KT SURGE IN THE TRADES AND SEAS TO 7 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING