000 AGXX40 KNHC 041842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 04 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... AT 1500 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS NEAR 29N88W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE LOW TO JUST S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 20N92W. BUOYS JUST S OF THE COLD FRONT ARE REPORTING 3 TO 5 FT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT. THE WINDSAT PASS FROM 1206 UTC SHOWED SOME 20 KT RETURNS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE FRONT. THE SAME PASS SHOWS ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH HIGH PRES BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E ALONG 26N THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WEAKENING FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT VERY SLIGHTLY SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS BIG BEND REGION THEN DISSIPATE. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SUNSET. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 FT OR LESS ARE ON TAP FOR WED AND MUCH OF THU...BUT LOOK FOR TROUGHING TO BUILD OVER TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO ON THU THAT WILL BRING AREAS OF 20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO THE NW GULF COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE MODELS AGREE ON CARRYING A FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI...THEN WEAKEN IT AS IT QUICKLY SHIFTS SE AND DISSIPATES SAT. SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A 1023 MB HIGH LIES S OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N66W WITH W TO E RIDGING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE ATLC. 15-20 KT S TO SW FLOW HAS BUILT IN ACROSS NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE GULF FRONT...WHILE THE PRES GRADIENT N OF AN OLD SHEAR LINE EXTENDING SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE LEEWARDS WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT ENE WINDS FROM THE NE CARIB ISLANDS NE TO NEAR 22N58W...WHERE SEAS WERE 6-7 FT AND EXTENDED W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS IN ELY WIND SWELL WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 9 FT N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WERE OTHERWISE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH INTO THE SE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BE BECOME A WEAK AND NARROW E TO W RIDGE ALONG 27N BY FRI...BRINGING A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND TO WINDS AND SEAS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON STALLING OF A FRONT OFF THE NE FL COAST WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM THROUGH FRI AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NE AND OVER THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE SW N ATLC. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER S AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH E WINDS 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WERE LIKELY NEAR 9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT WINDS WILL WEAKEN WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE HIGH DRIFTS E. THE WEAK SHEARLINE ACROSS THE LEEWARDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WED BUT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE E AND NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THEN. MODERATE ELY TRADES WILL PREVAIL BY WEEKS END...WITH FRESH TYPICAL FRESH ELY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN CARIB. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER/STRIPLING