000 AGXX40 KNHC 040812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 412 AM EDT TUE MAY 04 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE GULF HAS SHIFTED SLOWLY SE OVERNIGHT AND EXTENDED FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT FROM THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE SW TO NEAR 28N91W THEN S AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH TO NEAR 23N91W PER A RECENT 0344 UTC ASCAT PASS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE E OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME S TO SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27.5N...FROM OFFSHORE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE BIG BEND REGION...AT 15-20 KT AND CONTINUES TO FUEL LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR COASTAL TSTMS N OF 30N. OBS FROM ACROSS THIS AREA REPORTING 4-6 FT SEAS AT THIS HOUR. WEAKENING FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT VERY SLIGHTLY SE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS BIG BEND REGION THEN DISSIPATE. A NEW AND WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN TEXAS AND NW LA AND SUPPORTED BY SW TAIL OF MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE GULF TODAY AND HELP TO NUDGE INITIAL BOUNDARY SE. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FIRST BOUNDARY AT 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING N OF 25N BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A SMALL AND WEAK HIGH WILL DROP INTO THE NW GULF BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT TO PRODUCE WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THERE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE W ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND HELP TO HALT THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE BIG BEND...WHILE THE SW PORTION REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SW GULF. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 FT OR LESS ARE ON TAP FOR WED AND MUCH OF THU...BUT LOOK FOR TROUGHING TO BUILD OVER TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO ON THU THAT WILL BRING AREAS OF 20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO THE NW GULF COAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE MODELS AGREE ON CARRYING A FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST ON FRI...THEN STRUNG OUT W TO E ALONG THE FAR NW GULF SAT. SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1024 MB BERMUDA HIGH WAS CENTERED S OF THE ISLAND ALONG 29.5N OVERNIGHT WITH W TO E RIDGING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE ATLC. 15-20 KT SE TO S FLOW HAS BUILT IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ANS THE NW WATERS OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE PRES GRADIENT N OF AN OLD SHEAR LINE EXTENDING SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE LEEWARDS WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT ENE WINDS FROM THE NE CARIB ISLANDS NE TO NEAR 22N57W...WHERE SEAS WERE 6-7 FT AND EXTENDED W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS IN ELY WIND SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WERE OTHERWISE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH INTO THE SE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BE BECOME A WEAK AND NARROW E TO W RIDGE ALONG 27N BY FRI...BRINGING A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND TO WINDS AND SEAS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON STALLING OF A FRONT OFF THE NE FL COAST WED BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM THROUGH FRI AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES NE AND OVER THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE SW N ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER S AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WERE LIKELY NEAR 9 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT WINDS WILL WEAKEN WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE HIGH DRIFTS E. THE WEAK SHEARLINE ACROSS THE LEEWARDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WED BUT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE E AND NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THEN. MODERATE ELY TRADES WILL PREVAIL BY WEEKS END...WITH FRESH TYPICAL FRESH ELY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN CARIB. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING