000 AGXX40 KNHC 251837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO JUST NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N92W WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT W OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 28N91W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A SQUALL LINE IS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NE GULF AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NOW PUSHING INLAND OVER N FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING WHILE THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE E REACHING FROM NEAR CLEARWATER FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NW OVERTAKING THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE OF 15-20 KT BEHIND IT MAINLY N OF 28N ON MON. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES ATTEMPTS TO BUILDS IN FROM THE NW FROM OVER TEXAS. A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CENTRAL GULF LATE TUE WHILE ANOTHER FRONT OR TROUGH CLIPS THE FAR NE GULF TUE EVENING. HIGH PRES FINALLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON WED ENDING THE PARADE OF TROUGHS AND FRONTS THROUGH THE GULF. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE E OVER FLORIDA WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE IN THE W GULF LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE CENTRAL GULF MOVING IT TO THE NE TOWARD N FLORIDA AS AN OPEN TROUGH BY FRI HOWEVER PREVIOUS GFS RUNS DID NOT INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AND THE 12Z HI-RES ECMWF REFRAINS FROM ANY LOW OR TROUGH FORMING SO WILL CONTINUE THE STATUS QUO FOR NOW. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 55W... MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN S OF 13N AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WILL FORM IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY LATE THU THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES N-NE IN THE ATLC STRENGTHENS WITH 20 KT WINDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH 20-25 KT POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE W CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE THE TIGHTEST. AS A RESULT SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 8-11 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SW AND THE E CARIBBEAN. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 19N55W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS ST KITTS ISLAND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN INTO A SHEAR AXIS THIS EVENING THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW. LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 13 FT WILL PROPAGATE DOWN S OF 22N LATE THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY DECAYING TO 8 FT OR LESS BY EARLY TUE. MEANWHILE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION AND TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 17N MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 12 FT. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AND TRADES WILL DIMINISH. SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1019 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 27N63W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE W-NW TOWARD FLORIDA. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING SE E OF 65W WHERE LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 20 FT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE ATLC. SEAS ARE MUCH LOWER TO THE W OF 65W WITH MAINLY 6-10 FT N OF 27N AND 4-7 FT S OF 27N E OF THE BAHAMAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS INCREASED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WITH NEARSHORE BUOYS REGISTERING 20 KT WINDS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE E TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA ON MON AFTERNOON THEN WILL WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH AS A REINFORCING FRONT MOVES SE OF 31N MON NIGHT STRETCHING FROM NEAR 31N76W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE MON NIGHT THEN FROM 31N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH SE OF 31N TUE NIGHT AND WILL EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY WED THEN WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N62W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WED EVENING AS HIGH PRES ARRIVES FROM THE W OVER FLORIDA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA ON THU THROUGH FRI BECOMING CENTERED NEAR 31N66W BY FRI EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE IN THE FAR W PORTION ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY