000 AGXX40 KNHC 241831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT SAT APR 24 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS IN THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA JUST W OF LAKE CHARLES TO 25N94W 22N97W WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT (MAINLY 10-15 KT NOW) WITH STRONGER WINDS S OF 25N W OF THE FRONT WITH TAMPICO MEXICO REPORTING N 20 KT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE INDICATING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT MAINLY N OF 24N. 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO BEING REPORTED ALL THE WAY INTO THE FAR SE GULF NEAR KEY WEST AS CAPTURED BY RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. MEANWHILE MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED INLAND ALTHOUGH SOME NEW STRONG ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED OVER SE LOUISIANA TOWARD FAR NW FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE E REACHING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 23N92W THIS EVENING WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DEGENERATES WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH AS IN MOVES INTO THE E GULF AND STRETCHES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUN AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NE GULF SUN NIGHT AND WILL ESSENTIALLY ABSORB THE FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E-SE OF THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MON NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BY EARLY TUE THROUGH WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES IN THE W GULF AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTS TO THE SE-S OVER FLORIDA EVENTUALLY SHIFTING E INTO THE ATLC WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE THU. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BE LIKELY NEAR THE YUCATAN COAST BEGINNING TUE EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THU EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N W OF 55W... HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N-NE OF THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEMI-PERMANENT LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WITH 20-25 KT NE-E WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND S OF HISPANIOLA. MEANWHILE SE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED DURING THE PERIOD. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN THEREAFTER AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW CORNER BY LATE THU. A SET OF LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 12 FT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON THEN WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING ON THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE NW. SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1020 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 27N71W WITH A NW TO SE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA W OF 60W. TO THE E OF 60W SEVERAL TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A STRONG LOW PRES CENTER WELL NE OF THE AREA AND GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W AS REPORTED BY RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE E OF 55W BY EARLY SUN WITH A LARGE SET OF LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE E PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. SEAS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 25 FT ALONG 55W. BACK TO THE W...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE E ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT E OF 55W BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF OF N FLORIDA LATE MON REACHING FROM NEAR 31N78W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE MON NIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE E HALF OF THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP S OF 31N INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE REGION TUE EVENING AND WILL STRETCH FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED NIGHT THEN FROM 31N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY WED EVENING WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY