000 AGXX40 KNHC 161850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT FRI APR 16 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A 1010 MB WEAK LOW NEAR 18N62W WITH A TROUGH SW TO JUST E OF BARBADOS. THIS SYSTEM IS TRANSLATING ESE WITH TIME...AND IS FORECAST TO REACH TO NEAR 17N56W BY SAT MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING E OF AREA LATER ON SAT. A PARTIAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 1400 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED A SWATH OF 20 KT N WINDS TO THE N AND NW OF THE LOW AND TROUGH FROM 18N TO 23N AS ALSO CONFIRMED BY BUOY 41044 NEAR 22N59W WHERE COMBINED SEAS ARE 7 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT IS MUCH LIGHTER TO THE S OF THE LOW AND TROUGH WHERE WINDS ARE SW-W 10-15 KT. ELSEWHERE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRES COVERS THE THE SW N ATLC RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT S OF ABOUT 27N. THE SAME ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THESE WATERS W OF ABOUT 67W. WITH THE HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER THE SE U.S. AND FORECAST TO SHIFT SE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SRN WATERS WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE JUST TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A SWATH OF NE-E 20 KT TO CONTINUE WILL FOLLOW LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST AS IT INITIALIZED VERY WELL OBSERVED SEA STATE VALUES. MAY HAVE TO WEAK MAX HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY UPWARD OVER THE FAR SW WATERS W OF THE BAHAMAS FOR TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN AGREE IN SHOWING A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS NEAR THE BAHAMAS WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING SW OF THE BAHAMAS SUN OVER AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AND TO NE OF THE BAHAMAS LATER MON TO ALONG 65W OR JUST E OF 65W LATE MON WITH A TRAILING TROUGH SW TO ERN CUBA. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO FOR THIS FORECAST AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY W OF THE AREA OVER THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN AND NEAR TSTMS ACTIVITY WITH THE TROUGH AND ANY LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MENTIONED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH AND LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA. THE 1404 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SPILLING SW TO JUST S OF JAMAICA. THERE WAS SOME HINT OF NE 20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ON THE EDGE OF THE ASCAT PASS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE HIGH TO THE N SHIFTS S AND SE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UNCERTAIN FACTOR OF THIS FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER A TROUGH ENTERS ...OR DEVELOPS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA. BASES ON THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY BE THE CASE. IT MAY BE AN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTHERN ATLC WATERS. GULF OF MEXICO... A PARTIAL HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1545 UTC THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MOSTLY E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF S OF 25N. SEASTATE ANALYSIS VALID FROM 18 UTC SHOWED MAX SEAS OF 13 FT IN THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR 25N90W. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE ON THE S SIDE OF A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SWD INTO THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW GULF AND THE HIGH. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE NRN WATERS ON SUN...AND FURTHER S INTO THE MIDDLE GULF TUE WHERE IT PRESENTLY APPEARS THAT IT LOSES ITS IDENTITY. THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON SUN THROUGH DAYS 4 AND 5 DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF SRN WATERS ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN TEXAS AND THE SW GULF ROUGHLY ALONG 96W. A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR SW GULF RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITH THE SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO SWEEP E ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IT SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WITH AN ATTENDANT LOW OVER THE THE SRN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF SAT AND SUN. THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE SE GULF...AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON PER CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SRN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND ERN AND SRN WATERS OF THE E GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE