000 AGXX40 KNHC 151920 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT THU APR 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N60W WITH A TROUGH SW ACROSS THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS TO TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM IS TRANSLATING ENE WITH TIME. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1422 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED A SWATH OF N WINDS OF 20 KT TO THE NW OF THE LOW N OF ABOUT 24N...WHILE A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW IS RESULTING IN ONLY 10-15 KT WITH BUOY 41044 NEAR 22N59W SHOWING 10 KT WINDS WITH SEAS EARLIER OF 7 FT AND JUST RECENTLY DOWN TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRES COVERS THE THE SW N ATLC RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT S OF ABOUT 28N. THE HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED NE 20-25 KT WINDS COVERING THE WATERS S OF 26N. WITH THE PARENT HIGH LOCATED OVER N CAROLINA FORECAST TO SLIDE S AND SE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. SEASTATE ANALYSIS VALID 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAX SEAS OF 10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N73W. THIS MATCHED PRETTY WELL WITH THE NOAA WAVEWATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE APPEARS PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS FORECAST. BOTH 12 UTC GFS AND EUROPEAN GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A SURFACE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS NEAR THE BAHAMAS WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG OR JUST E OF THE SW BAHAMAS MON AND TUE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH THE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MENTIONED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH AND LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA. THE 1426 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SPILLING SW TO JUST S OF JAMAICA. THIS WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS THE HIGH TO THE N SHIFTS S AND SE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UNCERTAIN FACTOR OF THIS FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND WHETHER A TROUGH ENTERS ...OR DEVELOPS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA. BASES ON THE 12 UTC MODEL RUNS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY BE THE CASE. IT MAY BE AN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH THAT AFFECTS THE SOUTHERN ATLC WATERS. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 1602W UTC THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED E WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF S OF 26N. SEASTATE ANALYSIS VALID FROM 18 UTC SHOWED MEX SEAS OF 14 FT IN THEW MIDDLE GULF. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE ON THE S EDGE OF A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE THAT WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE SW N ATLC FRI AND CONTINUE SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE SW GULF AS ADVERTISED AGAIN BY THE MODELS. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN ON SUN...AND FURTHER S INTO THE MIDDLE GULF TUE WHERE IT LOSES MOST OF ITS IDENTITY. THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 HINGES ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH THROUGH THE SRN WATERS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW PRES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS MON...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER BRIEF. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE