000 AGXX40 KNHC 090724 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EDT FRI APR 9 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT 30N84W TO 25N86W TO 21N89W WILL REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING THEN WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS EVENING. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOPS AND RADAR MOSAIC ARE SHOWING A SQUALL LINE MOVING E JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE SW GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SW GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AND UNCLEAR BY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE LATEST GFS RUN DEVELOPS ANOTHER TROUGH AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NW GULF THEN SLOWLY TRACKS IT TO THE E MON THROUGH TUE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF THIS FEATURE (LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES). THE ECMWF HI-RES SOLUTION ALSO DEVELOPS A TROUGH ALTHOUGH KEEPS WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE ALTHOUGH STILL WOULD BE UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA. EARLIER WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... 15-20 KT IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND 10-15 KT IN THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE THE GRADIENT IS THE WEAKEST. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE RIDGE RETREATS MORE TO THE N AND AS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA WEAKENS. MEANWHILE A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEAR/ALONG 14N IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. REPORTS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SEVERAL SHIPS N OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE BEEN REPORTING NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT WITH 10-15 KT S OF THIS FEATURE. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH LOOSES DEFINITION. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AT 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT THEN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO THE E. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THEN FROM 31N70W TO 26N76W WITH THE SOUTHERN END STALLING OUT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT FROM NEAR 31N65W TO 27N68W. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE CAROLINAS AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE WITH 15-20 KT EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT TUE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT BY LATE TUE E OF FLORIDA WITH THE PERSISTENT AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FETCH. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY