000 AGXX40 KNHC 031759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT APR 3 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH A WEAK PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE OVER THE NW GULF AND IS STALLING E OF 94W AND ALREADY DRIFTING W TO W OF 94W. LIGHT 5 TO 10 KT WINDS VEERED TO BRIEFLY TO NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME WINDS ALREADY FROM E AGAIN. AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W AGAIN EARLY TONIGHT INTO SUN... WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK W TO A PSN WELL INLAND SUN MORNING. SE RETURN FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WILL SET UP AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED MORNING. OVERALL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY AND NOW SUGGESTS THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FRONT THAT WILL TRANSVERSE THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY NLY WINDS MAXING AT 30 KT OVER THE WATERS W OF 93W. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A RIDGE PARALLEL TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 31N76W TO PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG ROUGHLY THIS POSITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 32N55W WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N55W AND THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NE. THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO REPEAT TILL THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LIFTS OUT TO NE MID WEEK AND THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG COLD FRONTS SHIFTS E OF 50W. IN THE MEANTIME THE RESULTANT SWATCH OF NLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 72W HAS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS ALSO SUBSIDED TO AN 11 FT MAX. EXPECT NLY WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY MIDDAY MON. THE ASSOCIATED NLY SWELLS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT WILL ARRIVE AT NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE HIGH PRES MEANDERS NEAR 32N76W NEXT WEEK WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 KT RANGE ALL WATERS N OF 27N ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND RIDGE...WITH GRADIENT SUPPORTING STRONGER NE TO E WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER WATERS S OF 27N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ALONG E COAST CONUS THU MORNING REACHING THE NW BAHAMAS THU NIGHT. BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS NE WINDS 20 KT THROUGHOUT BAHAMAS NEXT SAT AND NE TO E WINDS 15 KT ON SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N55W TO NEAR 15N70W. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE ELY TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE NORMAL ENHANCED AREA OF WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NEXT COLD FRONT OVER NW CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON