000 AGXX40 KNHC 311854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT WED MAR 31 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... 15 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N87W ...AND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER SW FLORIDA ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR WESTERN GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WHERE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURES...WITH MUCH LOWER PRESSURES INLAND TEXAS. THIS MORNING'S 12 UTC SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED 0 TO 1 FT SEAS NEAR THE HIGH CENTER WITH SEAS RATHER LOW IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE FAR W PORTION NEAR THE TEXAS COAST A MAX OF 6 FT SEAS IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY BUOY 42020. THE 12 UTC NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL WITH THESE REPORTED VALUES. WINDS ARE PRETTY MUCH LIGHT TO VARIABLE 5-10 KT ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE PORTION W OF 91W WHERE S-SE WINDS OF 15 KT ARE NOTED. SOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH CENTER BEGINS TO MOVE NE REACHING N FLORIDA THU ALLOWING FOR SLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF INCREASING WINDS THERE TO 20-25 KT THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W BY LATE SAT BEFORE STALLING. MODELS PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS A WARM FRONT AS SE RETURN FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WHILE E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BY MON AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE WATERS. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 26N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. BOTH ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY DATA FROM DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAVE SHOWN AND ARE SHOWING RATHER LIGHT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...WITH S-SW 15-20 KT E OF THE FRONT JUST NE OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N60W TO HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVE E OF THE AREA THU EVENING. HIGH PRES BEHIND IT WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA SUN AND MON. SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN N SWELLS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 6 FT BY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC FRONT IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND WILL DISSIPATE INTO THU MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC BY LATE SUN. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N...EXCEPT THE FAR SRN WATERS WHERE NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WHERE NOTED ESPECIALLY HUGGING THE S AMERICAN COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH MON WITH MAYBE JUST OCCASIONAL EPISODES OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE