000 AGXX40 KNHC 270616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT SAT MAR 27 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH 1016 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED TO THE NW NEAR 28N87W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STRETCHES ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE ATLC. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO 23N97W SUN MORNING THEN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN EVENING AND SE OF THE GULF WATERS MON AFTERNOON. A 20-25 KT NORTHERLY SURGE ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THEN DIMINISHES MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE W GULF. HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A WEAK PRES GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE A TIGHTER GRADIENT EXISTS DUE TO LOW PRES LOCATED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. A 0148Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED NE-E TRADES OF 20-25 KT NEAR AND N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN THEN THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH 20-25 KT TRADES EXPANDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON AFTERNOON AND WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT THEN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA BY TUE EVENING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THE STRONGEST TRADES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF S AMERICA THROUGH WED NIGHT. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC NORTHERLY SWELL OF UP TO 11 FT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 15N. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR 31N71W TO 29N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY AND SQUALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A 0150Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 5-15 KT BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E OF 65W THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN S OF 31N FROM OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRES SLIDES E ON SUN WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENING OFF THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GFS STILL HINTING AT MINIMAL GALES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MON ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CAP WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW AS THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODEL ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF HI-RES MODEL SOLUTION IS ALSO NOW PROJECTING 35 KT WINDS RIGHT ALONG AND N OF 30N SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N78W TO SE FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON THEN FROM 31N72W TO EASTERN CUBA EARLY TUE AND FROM 29N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY EARLY WED. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY