000 AGXX40 KNHC 221908 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 307 PM EST MON MAR 22 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE STRONG COLD FRONT EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT...WITH THE PARENT DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER TN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A SECONDARY WLY WIND SURGE AND TROUGH NOW SWEEPING E ACROSS THE NE GULF. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE N AND NE GULF HAVE SHOWN 20-25 KT WINDS ALL DAY...WITH A RECENT 1600 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWING BROAD 25 KT FLOW ACROSS THE NE WITH A SMALL AREA TO 30 KT NEAR 27N88W. BUOY OBS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOWED 12-14 FT SEAS THIS MORNING...WITH BUOY 42039 PEAKING AT 16 FT AT 1200 UTC. THIS AREA OF 12 FT SEAS WAS LARGER AND DISPLACED TO THE NE OF WWIII GUIDANCE. THIS 20-25 KT WLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SW GULF WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING AND TUE...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING AGAIN IN THE W GULF TUE AND WED. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NW GULF COAST THU MORNING...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND GALES ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH A S/W RIDGE FORECAST BY WED NIGHT...AND YET ANOTHER S/W TROUGH-LOW APPROACHING N TEXAS FROM THE W. HOWEVER...THE PMDHMD EXPLAINS THAT THE MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST TO BREAK DOWN THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TIMING OF THESE NEXT SYSTEMS MAY NEED TO BE ALTERED. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FRESH TRADES PREVAIL...WITH 20-25 KT TRADES STILL INDICATED BY MORNING ASCAT PASSES S OF 14.5N...AND 25-30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NW FLOW OF 20 KT...WITH SMALL POCKETS TO 25 KT ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE W CARIB...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME N-NE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY BACK OFF TO 15 TO 20 KT BY MORNING...WITH 7-9 FT SEAS OVERNIGHT SUBSIDING ON TUE. FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY THU AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NW GULF AND HIGH PRES OPENS UP AHEAD OF IT. SEAS IN THE SRN CARIB WILL REMAIN 9-12 FT THROUGH THU. A MID LEVEL VORT MOVING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WAS NEAR 50W THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS AIDING A LLVL WIND SURGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...WHERE 20-25 KT NE WINDS WERE FOUND S OF 20N...RAISING SEAS A FT OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE...TO 8-9 FT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE TO NEAR 20 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS E. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... THE COLD FRONT SHIFTED E OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING AND WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR 31N76W THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W. A 1418 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25-30 KT SLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS E AND SE OF THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS SECONDARY SURGE ACROSS THE NE GULF WILL SWEEP ACROSS FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND MAINTAIN A 20 KT WLY FLOW ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE FRONT WILL SNAG ACROSS ERN CUBA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY MOVES E ACROSS THE ATLC AND EXITS MOST OF THE AREA BY 72 HRS...WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS STRETCHED FROM NEAR 23N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA. ONLY MODEST WIND DRIVEN SEAS ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SEA HIGHEST ACROSS N PORTIONS. THE HIGH OVER THE GULF WILL SLIDE E ACROSS FLORIDA TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND INTO THE SW N ATLC TO PRODUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS N OF 23N...AND MODERATE TRADES TO THE S OF 23N. SLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA E COAST AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING