000 AGXX40 KNHC 180739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EST THU MAR 18 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S TX TO THE FL STRAITS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ORIENTATED N TO S ALONG 94W TODAY WITH THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRES FORMING OVER THE NW WATERS. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT E ALONG 29-30N FRI TO A PSN OFF CAROLINA COASTS AT SUNRISE SAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE DISSECTING THE GULF FROM NE TO SW. SE RETURN FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE NW WATERS AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS DEVELOPING...BUT EXPECT VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NW TODAY THEN BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND 15 TO 20 KT FRI. THE SE RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD E COVERING ALL WATERS FRI NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TX COAST AROUND SUNRISE SAT...A FULL 12 HOURS EARLIER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. THIS FRONT WILL RACE SE OF THE FL STRAITS SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE NOW LONGER SUGGESTING THE LARGE AREA OF NLY GALES...BUT STRONG CAA AND FAST MOVING FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE NW AND SW ZONES BEGINNING EARLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. PATTERN SEEMS PROGRESSIVE AGAIN AS POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES WILL RACE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS SETTING UP SE NW EARLY MON AND ALL WATERS BY MIDDAY TUE. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N55W ACROSS THE N LEEWARDS TO 15N72W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER S OVER ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS TODAY WITH REMNANTS MEANDERING THROUGH FRI. A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W WITH CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN THEN FILL AS ELY TRADES RESUME. NLY FLOW CONTINUES WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W THROUGH FRI...THEN ELY TRADES RESUME TILL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUNSET SUN. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... LOW PRES HAS FORMED OFF THE NE FL COAST WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. ONE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS FL ATTM IS LIKELY TO BECOME THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE AS COLD AIR WRAPS SE ACROSS FL MODIFYING THIS TROUGH INTO A COLD FRONT WITH A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH PSN 31N74W TO 20N74W TONIGHT AND FROM BERMUDA TO SE BAHAMAS FRI THEN STALL FROM 31N55W TO 24N65W TO HISPANIOLA SAT...WITH REMNANTS DRIFTING W ON SUN. NOTE THAT SECONDARY SURGES WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF GA COAST LATE SUN...REACHING FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080 AND GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON