000 AGXX40 KNHC 171913 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 PM EST TUE MAR 16 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NE MEXICO TO SE WATERS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU. MID LEVEL LOW TREKKING E-NE ACROSS THE NE GULF STATES WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING E ACROSS THE NE GULF IS ALLOWING A MODEST LLVL WIND SURGE OF 15-20 KT WITH SMALL POCKETS TO 25 KT TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE ERN GULF. 20-30 KT NLY WINDS OF LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF HAVE DIMINISHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SEAS LIKELY PEAKING NEAR 1200 UTC THIS MORNING NEAR 11 FT PER THE MEXICAN PEMEX BUOY BMO. SURFACE LOW AND WEAK TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME NE GULF EXTENDING S ALONG 84W. THIS ENHANCED N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING E AND SE AND OUT OF THE BASIN AS DEVELOPING LOW MOVES E-NE ACROSS FLORIDA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS A WEAK HIGH CENTER WILL FORM ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND SHIFT E ALONG 28-29N FRI AND ACROSS N FL FRI NIGHT. BY EARLY FRI SLY RETURN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA W OF 94W...THEN SPREADING E AND COVERING ALL WATERS FRI NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND SUNSET SAT RACING TO OVER THE EXTREME E WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MINIMAL GALE IN WAKE OF FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF ZONES SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AS USUAL. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BECOME FURTHER STRUNG OUT...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 23N55W TO ALONG THE NE COAST HISPANIOLA...WHERE IT APPEARS DIFFUSE IN STLT IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS OLD BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER ATLC WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NRN VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT...STALL AND THEN DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE NW THU AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE N FLORIDA AND SE U.S. COASTS. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 4 DEGREES TO THE NW OF THIS INITIAL BOUNDARY...AND MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS N OF 26N AND BEHIND THIS SECOND BOUNDARY. WEAK LLVL TROFFING EXTENDING WITH AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH IN HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...AND NE FLOW FROM THE MONA PASSAGE W AND SW TO THE W CENTRAL CARIB. NLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SURGE ACROSS THE GULF HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIB AND WILL SPREAD S OVERNIGHT TO PRODUCE A BROAD ZONE OF 20 KT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIB W OF 78W THROUGH FRI...WITH AREAS TO 25 KT TO BE EXPECTED. FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE ERN CARIB BY FRI MORNING WILL SPREAD W TO NEAR 80W OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUN NIGHT. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... NWLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STILL AFFECTING FAR NE PORTIONS. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS HAD ABATED DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS...WITH NLY SWELL PRODUCING SEAS 7-10 FT ACROSS N PORTIONS E OF 75W. THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS N FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND THEN NE INTO THE ATLC AND INDUCE 20-25 KT OF SWLY FLOW IN THE SRN SEMICIRCLE...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS THROUGH THU EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 70W. THE LOW WILL LOW OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NE THROUGH FRI YIELDING WEAKENING NW TO W FLOW IN ITS WAKE...WITH YET ANOTHER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS PLACE OFF THE SC/GA COASTS FRI NIGHT. LONG PERIOD NELY SWELL FROM THE RECENT NE U.S. GALE WILL INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE NW BAHAMAS BY MORNING AND ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY THU. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER N OF 25 THROUGH THU BEFORE GRADUALLY FADING. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080 AND GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING