000 AGXX40 KNHC 152145 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 320 PM EST MON MAR 15 2010 ...CORRECTED TIME 320 PM... MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF HAS A WEAK RIDGE NW TO OFFSHORE OF TX/LA BORDER AND A RIDGE SE TO NW CUBA. EXPECT THIS SURFACE HIGH TO COLLAPSE AND BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS ACROSS SW LA TO THE SE GULF OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NE AND EXTEND FROM NE TX TO THE FL STRAITS BY MID WEEK. SELY WINDS OVER THE SW AND WRN GULF WILL BECOME ELY TUE...WHILE A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW GULF...WITH THROUGH DEVELOPING N ALONG COASTAL MEXICO. A REINFORCING HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SINK INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUE EVENING...AND FORCE A STRONG NLY FLOW ACROSS THE SW GULF TO THE W OF THE LOW/TROUGH. GFS RESPONDS WITH 20-25 KT OF NW TO N FLOW...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS INDICATING A BROADER AREA OF 20-25 KT WITH 30 KT DAMMED UP ALONG THE SRN MEXICAN COAST. THIS WAS YIELDING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS THIS AREA...RANGING FROM MAX OF 9 FT WITH THE GFS/WWIII TO 13 FT WITH ECMWF. AT PRESENT HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE ROAD WITH THIS FORECAST THROUGH WED. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE SEEMS TO WEAKEN WITH A SURFACE HIGH REAPPEARING OFF THE CENTRAL TX COAST WITH WINDS BECOMING LGT VRBL NEAR THE HIGH OVER THE NW ZONE. AS THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY A WEAK TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WED AND THU. TROPICAL ATLC E TO 55W AND CARIBBEAN SEA... REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N58W TO N COASTAL HISPANIOLA AND WAS THEN DIFFUSE ACROSS THE SRN WINDWARD PASSAGE. ATLC PORTION OF FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO TUE AND THEN SINK ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TUE EVENING YIELDING SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MODERATE ELY TRADES ACROSS ALL BUT THE NE CARIBBEAN...WHERE WINDS WERE LIGHT SE...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE WHILE NE TO N FLOW WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W AND NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE ADVANCING FRONT TUE NIGHT. SW N ATLC E TO 65W... THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO SE PORTIONS EXTENDING SW TO N HISPANIOLA...WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING E ACROSS 65-70W THIS AFTERNOON...AND A NEW SURGE OW 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND IT. DEEPENING LOW OFF MID ATLC COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E THROUGH WED AND BECOME ELONGATED W TO E...ALLOWING FOR A PRONOUNCED AREA OF WLY WINDS TO SWEEP ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS IN EXCESS OF 10 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DIFFERENCE STILL EXIST BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF...WITH THE EURO GENERALLY STRONGER...WITH WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT AND WED E OF 65W. OTHERWISE WEAKENING NWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH SEAS RETURNING TO TYPICAL HEIGHTS IN A MODERATE NW FLOW. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING