000
AGXX40 KNHC 131914
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
214 PM EST SAT MAR 13 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DOMINATES MOST 
OF THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GULF COAST WHERE A 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS MOVING OFFSHORE AND RESULTING IN AN 
INCREASE IN W TO SW WINDS TO 25 KT N OF 28N. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NW TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES E. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15-20 KT SUN INTO MON OVER THE NE GULF AS
THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE NW TO SE ORIENTED. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
LATE MON INTO WED WITH INCREASING NLY WINDS PRIMARILY OVER THE 
GULF S OF 25N. HIGH PRESS SETTLES OVER THE GULF THU WITH LIGHT 
WINDS MOST AREAS.   
 
TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC 
WATERS WITH GENERALLY E TO SE FLOW IN ITS WAKE. OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN...THE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM 21N79W TO JUST E OF 
NICARAGUA WITH NW TO N WINDS OF 15-20 KT W OF THE FRONT WITH THE 
HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A NEARBY SHIP 3WITH 
CALL SIGN FNZ5 HAS REPORTED NW WINDS OF 23 KT AND 9 FT SEAS 
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS LATE SUN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN BY LATE MON. THE N SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO 
NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE TUE THEN BISECT 
THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE FROM 21N55W TO N LEEWARDS LATE WED.
FRONT DISSIPATES THU. 

SW N ATLC...  
HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS YIELDING TO THE STRONG COLD 
FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO E-CENTRAL CUBA. RECENT 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A 1404 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS 
INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS HAS MOVED N OF THE 
AREA LEAVING SE TO S WINDS OF 20-30 KT GENERALLY N OF 25N. THE 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP RAPIDLY E AND EXTEND FROM 29N65W TO 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY SUN THEN SE OF THE AREA LATE MON. 
IN THE MEANTIME A REINFORCING FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SE COAST 
OVERNIGHT AND USHERS IN INCREASING W WINDS OF 20-30 KT N OF 25N 
W OF 70W SUN. THESE WINDS SPREAD RAPIDLY E OVER ALL AREAS N OF 
25N MON AND E OF 70W BY TUE. NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN 
KEEPING WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE WITH THE GFS MOST ROBUST IN 
DEPICTING A SOLID AREA OF 30 KT WINDS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE 
AREA TUE. GFS DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS TUE NIGHT INTO WED NE OF 
THE FCST AREA WITH OTHER MODELS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. WINDS DECREASE 
RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA WED WITH RESIDUAL NW SWELL. A WEAK  COLD 
FRONTAL OF SORTS MOVES INTO THE AREA W OF 75W THU WITH A WIND 
SHIFT OF 15 KT.   
 
WARNINGS...
ATLC...
.NONE.
 
CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER COBB