000 AGXX40 KNHC 061945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST SAT MAR 06 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE 1800 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SE MISSISSIPPI TO NW CUBA. LATEST BUOYS FROM ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES TO SHOWED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 3-5 FT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAE SE WATERS NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE WINDS THERE ARE STILL BEING REPORTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT. OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS WINDS ARE NE-E 5-10 KT WITH SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF CONDITIONS THROUGH THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE E ON SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TO OFFSHORE THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH LATER ON TUE THROUGH WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT...IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE WED AFTERNOON. 12 UTC MODEL RUN FOR THE MOST PART AGREE ON THIS TIMING WITH ECMWF BEING A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN TERMS OF SOMEWHAT FASTER TIMING WITH FRONT INTO THE GULF BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON...AND WITH STRENGTH OF WINDS (INCREASING WINDS TO 20-25 KT) BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL GO CONSERVATIVE ON WINDS AND AWAIT FOR LATER RUNS OF THE GFS TO SEE IF IT COMES MORE INTO TERMS WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA AREA BY LATE THU SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OF INTERESTING TO NOTE...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTER N WITH THE LOW. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE TYPICAL LOWS THAT TENDS TO FORM ON THE MOST SRN PORTION OF A NOT SO STRONG COLD FRONT. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED AND ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SW TO NEAR 16N69W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO NW NEAR NW COLOMBIA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 15 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED A SWATH OF NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 74W AND N OF 15N...AND WHICH ENCOMPASSED THE SE AND S COASTS OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TSTM CLUSTER HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N72W. SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND E OF ABOUT 68W...AND AN AREA OF NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE RE-ENERGIZED TONIGHT AND SUN AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WELL N OF THE AREA ROTATES SE ACROSS THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH AND PROVIDES EXTRA MOMENTUM FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN ITS EASTWARD MOTION REACHING FROM NEAR 22N60W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO TO 13N70W BY SAT...AND REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO NEAR LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 13N70W BY SUN...THEN LAY ROUGHLY ALONG 19N/20N MON AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. IT THEN APPEARS THAT THE FRONT IS PULLED E TUE AND WED AS THE WAVE TRACKS NE THU POSSIBLY FORMING INTO A LOW. EXPECT N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN VEERING TO NE-E BY MON MORNING AND DIMINISHING TO NE-E 10-15 KT BY TUE MORNING AND INTO THU WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE IN A N SWELL...SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT WED AND TO 3-5 FT BY THU. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE SUPPRESS TO S OF 16N OR 15N INTO NEXT WITH AN AREA OF SE 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO ACROSS WINDWARD ISLANDS. SW N ATLC... THE ABOVE CARIBBEAN STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE TO NE OF THE AREA AT 22N58W. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1510 UTC THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA OF W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 26N AND E OF 74W. BUOY 41047 HAS BEEN SHOWING LARGE COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KT. W OF 74W... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE LESSENED QUITE A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OF POLAR ORIGINS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC... MAINTAINING MEAN TROUGHING HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TO E OF 65W OVER NIGHT... AND WEAKEN E OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE WESTERN WATERS MON AND TUE...AND TO JUST NE OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON. SLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FAR W PORTION BEGINNING WED INTO THU IN RESPONSE TO NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU...BUT TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 061945 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST SAT MAR 06 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE 1800 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SE MISSISSIPPI TO NW CUBA. LATEST BUOYS FROM ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUES TO SHOWED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND SEAS RANGING FROM 3-5 FT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAE SE WATERS NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE WINDS THERE ARE STILL BEING REPORTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT. OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS WINDS ARE NE-E 5-10 KT WITH SEAS DOWN TO 2 FT. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF CONDITIONS THROUGH THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE E ON SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TO OFFSHORE THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH LATER ON TUE THROUGH WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT...IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE WED AFTERNOON. 12 UTC MODEL RUN FOR THE MOST PART AGREE ON THIS TIMING WITH ECMWF BEING A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN TERMS OF SOMEWHAT FASTER TIMING WITH FRONT INTO THE GULF BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON...AND WITH STRENGTH OF WINDS (INCREASING WINDS TO 20-25 KT) BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL GO CONSERVATIVE ON WINDS AND AWAIT FOR LATER RUNS OF THE GFS TO SEE IF IT COMES MORE INTO TERMS WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA AREA BY LATE THU SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OF INTERESTING TO NOTE...MODELS DEVELOP A LOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLIGHTER N WITH THE LOW. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE TYPICAL LOWS THAT TENDS TO FORM ON THE MOST SRN PORTION OF A NOT SO STRONG COLD FRONT. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED AND ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SW TO NEAR 16N69W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO NW NEAR NW COLOMBIA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 15 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED A SWATH OF NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 74W AND N OF 15N...AND WHICH ENCOMPASSED THE SE AND S COASTS OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TSTM CLUSTER HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT WITHIN 30 NM OF 16N72W. SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND E OF ABOUT 68W...AND AN AREA OF NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE RE-ENERGIZED TONIGHT AND SUN AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WELL N OF THE AREA ROTATES SE ACROSS THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH AND PROVIDES EXTRA MOMENTUM FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN ITS EASTWARD MOTION REACHING FROM NEAR 22N60W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO TO 13N70W BY SAT...AND REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO NEAR LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 13N70W BY SUN...THEN LAY ROUGHLY ALONG 19N/20N MON AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. IT THEN APPEARS THAT THE FRONT IS PULLED E TUE AND WED AS THE WAVE TRACKS NE THU POSSIBLY FORMING INTO A LOW. EXPECT N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN VEERING TO NE-E BY MON MORNING AND DIMINISHING TO NE-E 10-15 KT BY TUE MORNING AND INTO THU WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE IN A N SWELL...SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT WED AND TO 3-5 FT BY THU. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE SUPPRESS TO S OF 16N OR 15N INTO NEXT WITH AN AREA OF SE 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO ACROSS WINDWARD ISLANDS. SW N ATLC... THE ABOVE CARIBBEAN STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE TO NE OF THE AREA AT 22N58W. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1510 UTC THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA OF W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 26N AND E OF 74W. BUOY 41047 HAS BEEN SHOWING LARGE COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KT. W OF 74W... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE LESSENED QUITE A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OF POLAR ORIGINS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC... MAINTAINING MEAN TROUGHING HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TO E OF 65W OVER NIGHT... AND WEAKEN E OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE WESTERN WATERS MON AND TUE...AND TO JUST NE OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON. SLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FAR W PORTION BEGINNING WED INTO THU IN RESPONSE TO NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE THU...BUT TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE