000 AGXX40 KNHC 051945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST FRI MAR 05 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE 1800 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH A RIDGE SE TO THE SE WATERS. LATEST BUOYS FROM ACROSS THE GULF ARE SHOWING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SEEN THE PAST PREVIOUS DAYS WITH WINDS IN THE LIGHT RANGE...AND SEAS DOWN TO THE 2-4 FT RANGE EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 5 FT NEAR WRN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH THROUGH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE FAR NE WATERS BY LATE SUN...AND TO N FLORIDA LATE MON INTO TUE BEFORE SHIFTING TO OFFSHORE THE NE FLORIDA COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH LATER ON TUE THROUGH WED. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO POSSIBLY MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND WED AFTERNOON PER 1200 UTC CYCLE MODEL RUN. OF NOTE ...THE 1200 UTC IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF LATE ON WED. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT INITIALLY...THEN PERHAPS INCREASE TO WNW AT 20-25 KT BEYOND DAY 5. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED AND ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO EXTEND FROM NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO NEAR 15N71W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO NEAR NW COLOMBIA. A 1514 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF N 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE TO 81W. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REPORTING NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A PARTIAL 1334 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N AND E OF 67W...AND AN AREA OF NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERING THE MUCH OF THE MIDDLE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING FROM NEAR 22N60W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO TO 13N70W BY SAT...AND REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO NEAR LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 13N70W BY SUN...THEN LAY ROUGHLY ALONG 19N/20N MON AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. IT THEN APPEARS THAT THE FRONT IS PULLED E TUE AND WED AS THE WAVE TRACKS NE POSSIBLY FORMING INTO A LOW. EXPECT N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH WED WITH SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE IN A N SWELL. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE SUPPRESS TO S OF 16N OR 15N INTO NEXT WITH AN AREA OF SE 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TO ACROSS WINDWARD ISLANDS. SW N ATLC... THE ABOVE CARIBBEAN STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE TO NE OF THE AREA AT 21N65W. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1510 UTC THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA OF W-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 26N AND E OF 74W. BUOY 41047 HAS BEEN SHOWING LARGE COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 12 FT DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KT. W OF 74W... WINDS AND SEAS HAVE LESSENED QUITE A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OF POLAR ORIGINS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC... MAINTAINING MEAN TROUGHING HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGINS TO PRESS E DURING THE WEEKEND WHEN IT MOVES E OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE WESTERN WATERS MON AND TUE...AND TO JUST NE OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON. SLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FAR W PORTION BEGINNING WED IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE