000 AGXX40 KNHC 040730 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EST WED MAR 03 2010 CORRECTED FOR WARNING... MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE NORTH AMERICA WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR A SLOW MOVING RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NW WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF BEHIND THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN N ATLC DIMINISHING TODAY AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BUILDING IN THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 20 KT AND LOWER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACCORDING TO THE 0306 UTC ASCAT PASS. BUOYS AND SHIPS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT WERE CONSISTENTLY 20 TO 25 KT A FEW HOURS AGO HAVE ALSO RECENTLY DECREASED TO 20 KT. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN THROUGH SUN. ON MONDAY..THE GFS BECOMES THE FASTEST SOLUTION TO MOVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH TX AND INTO THE NW GULF. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE BLOCK PATTERN IN PLAY. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF ON MONDAY...IN LINE WITH THE PMDHMD THINKING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE NW GULF MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HAITI TO 10N80W AT 0000 UTC. THE 0304 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 240 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20 KT IN MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHOWER ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIES THE BOUNDARY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 0600 UTC OBSERVATION FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE SHOWED LIGHT RAIN. THE FRONT WILL PASS EASTWARD THROUGH HISPANIOLA TODAY...BUT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUN. THE RAIN THREAT MOVES E TO PUERTO RICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FRI THROUGH MON. N SWELL FROM THE PARENT LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE FRI NIGHT AND SHIFT E...PASSING THROUGH THE OTHER N FACING PASSAGES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FORECAST...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 982 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF THE AREA LIES FROM 31N60W T0 24N65W TO 20N71W WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT N OF 30N ALONG 69W. THE 0126 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE BOTH E OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT N OF 28N AND W OF THIS FRONT TO 71W N OF 27N. THIS PASS LIKELY MISSED THE STRONGEST WINDS W OF THE FRONT. THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT WIND RETRIEVALS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE STILL AT GALE FORCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES BOTH W OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS JUST E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE GALE WARNING IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OF POLAR ORIGINS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC...MAINTAINING MEAN TROUGHING HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING. NW WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT MORE N TO NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT HAS THINNED OUT AS THE BULK OF THE VERTICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT HAS SHIFTED NE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WARM TOPPED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH SE WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 27N E OF 71W THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER