000 AGXX40 KNHC 031757 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST WED MAR 03 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE E GULF WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUNRISE THU WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY SUNSET THU EVEN OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WILL BECOME SE THU AS THE PARENT HIGH PRES IN THAT AREA SHIFTS N SETTING UP A N-S RIDGE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 92W-88W THU THROUGH SAT. ELY WINDS W OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT...THEN GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUPPORTING SE 15 TO 20 KT SUN BECOMING S SUN NIGHT ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONT OFF TX COAST MON AFTERNOON. E OF THE RIDGE NLY WINDS AT 10 KT PULSING TO 15 KT THROUGH SAT...THEN RIDGE DISSOLVES WITH WINDS BECOMING ESE 15 TO 20 KT SUN INTO MON. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SE BAHAMAS ACROSS JAMAICA TO COSTA RICA ATTM WILL CONTINUE SE LOSING MOMENTUM FROM 22N65W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE PANAMA THU. THE FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER SW CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE FRONTAL SEGMENT TO THE N OF 17N BECOMES ORIENTATED E-W ACROSS ATLC WATERS ENE OF LEEWARDS TO HISPANIOLA. EXPECT FRONTAL REMNANTS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST ONE NLY SURGE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND BRIEFLY INCREASING NE-SE WIND SHIFT NEAR FRONT TO 15 TO 20 KT. LARGE SEAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST N OF AREA NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS LARGE...THEREFORE TONED DOWN HEIGHTS PROPAGATING INTO WATERS E OF 65W ON THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. HIGH PRES N OF AREA WILL MAINTAIN NLY FLOW OVER W CARIBBEAN WHILE BROAD TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN WITH ELY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. BY MON THE TROUGH DISSOLVES AND NLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY DATA SHOWS W WINDS STILL PULSING TO GALE FORCE N OF 26N W OF FRONT WHILE AREA E OF FRONT HAS SHRUNK TO A SMALL AREA N OF 29N WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM E OF FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT N OF AREA MUCH SOONER...THEREFORE DROPPED WARNINGS S OF 31N AT 12 UTC THU. NWW3 GUIDANCE NOW SEEMS UNREALISTICALLY HIGH...ABOUT 4 FT. MY SEAS STATE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATED MAX OF 13 FT WHERE NWW3 SUGGESTED 18 FT. THUS TONED DOWN SEAS HEIGHTS CONSIDERABLY THIS MORNINGS ALPHANUMERIC PACKAGE AND ALSO JUST FINISHED ADJUSTING HEIGHTS AND HEIGHTS CONTOURS DOWN ABOUT 4 FT OVER CENTRAL ATLC ON GRAPHICAL SUITE THROUGH 72 HOURS. EXPECT NLY FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FINALLY DIMINISHING TO LIGHT VARIABLE OVER EXTREME NW WATERS ALONG FL/GA COAST ON MON SPREADING E OVER WATERS N OF BAHAMAS MON NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 26N THROUGH TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON