000 AGXX40 KNHC 030657 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST WED MAR 03 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ACCORDING TO SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS AND THE 0328 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE NORTH AMERICA WILL BRING A SLOW MOVING RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NW WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF BEHIND THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN N ATLC DIMINISHING THROUGH THU AND THEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BUILDING IN THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 0000 UTC. THE 0326 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20 KT IN MUCH OF THE REGION W OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOWER ACTIVITY ACCOMPANIES THE BOUNDARY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH IT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PASS EASTWARD THROUGH HISPANIOLA WED THROUGH SUN. HISPANIOLA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME. THE RAIN THREAT MOVES E TO PUERTO RICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SE WINDS WILL PERSIST E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FORECAST...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. SW N ATLC... THE 0148 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE E COAST OF FL N OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 0000 UTC. SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS W OF THE FRONT ARE JUST BELOW GALE FORCE AS FAR S AS 26N. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES BOTH W OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS JUST E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ASCAT...WHICH TENDS TO RUN LOW...SHOWS WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN THIS AREA. THE GALE WARNING IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE LATE WED NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVES E OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OF POLAR ORIGINS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC...MAINTAINING MEAN TROUGHING HERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING. NW WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT MORE N TO NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT WILL THIN OUT BY THU AS THE BULK OF THE VERTICAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS NE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH SE WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 26N THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER